Re: Change of topic (965 Views)
Posted by:
belmont3 (IP Logged)
Date: May 24, 2017 12:20AM
Wherethevalue,
Like your concept.
How does one practically determine and/or quantify the incline/decline effect of a bias?
If the incline/decline # is determined based on future efforts, would the inherent advantage be lost?
Let me illustrate with a recent race at Belmont Park.
Friday, May 19th
6th race
MSW 1 1/16th on the main track.
Myakka River trained by Shug looked a bit 'outnumbered' based on first glance at TG #'s.
In a 7 horse field he was second longest shot at approximately 15 to 1.
Myakka had last raced April 28th which, on the TG's, had a dead rail X on the sheet.
Needless to say, Myakka won and paid $33.
Considering your incline/decline methodology, would one use the improved performance of Myakka (assuming he ran an improved TG # in this case) to determine the incline/decline effect of the April 28th dead rail.
Or does one (in theory) look at the performance numbers of all entrants that ran on that dead rail versus their prior efforts and attempt to 'predict' the probable incline/decline effect?
Hope that makes sense.
BTW, I generally disregard or 'forgive' a 'poor' effort if I see the dead rail designation next to the race.
Thanks for posting
Bob