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 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
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Re: Change of topic (1041 Views)
Posted by: sekrah (IP Logged)
Date: May 24, 2017 04:28AM

wherethevalue Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > If one is a 100% convinced that a bias existed,
> > you still need to use the race (adjusted) in
> the
> > context of the pattern, and most people who use
> a
> > perceived bias do not do that. They
> automatically
> > dismiss or promote a horse in their next race.
> A
> > horse that was affected positively by a bias
> might
> > make his pattern for the next race either
> stronger
> > or weaker. Same if they were negatively
> > affected.
>
> People automatically dismiss or promote a horse in
> their next race because bias has nothing to do
> with subjectively reading a form pattern. People
> who inheret bias as a study calculate the average
> speed figure incline/decline in relation to the
> bias. Example: Horse A was on a dead rail and
> horses on the dead rail from that day have come
> back to run an average of 7 points higher.


If they are using bias that way (other horses came back to run 7 points higher), they might as well throw darts when they handicap.

First, the paths are always changing as the moisture changes and as the maintenance crew performs work on it. The "bias" is always changing. Tracks will go from slow to fast or fast to slow throughout the day, sometimes race to race. The same would apply to paths.

Second, every horse has a different pattern. If a horse is in a dead or hot path than you have a horse that ran on a completely different track speed variant than the rest of the field, likely completely altering his pattern. It could change his last race from a Top to an Off or vice versa.

Third, they are using a sample from only a handful of horses. How many horses actually ran on the rail? 4? 5? What condition were they in that day? What condition were they in the next race? You don't have a chance of knowing any of this if you don't use form cycles.

If one isn't going to use pattern context then why use the horse's next start to judge how much a bias affected a horse? Why not just use the previous start before the biased race?

This is a very poor method to use a bias. The ones who use this are trying to make scientific adjustments to a speed figure and it's just not possible using the data at hand.



Subject Written By Posted
Change of topic (1728 Views) johnnym 05/23/2017 10:21AM
Re: Change of topic (1148 Views) atakante 05/23/2017 12:55PM
Re: Change of topic (1164 Views) mjellish 05/23/2017 01:28PM
Re: Change of topic (1270 Views) sekrah 05/23/2017 01:35PM
Re: Change of topic (1180 Views) mjellish 05/23/2017 08:40PM
Re: Change of topic (1016 Views) jbelfior 05/24/2017 06:35AM
Re: Change of topic (1068 Views) jimbo66 05/24/2017 02:07PM
Re: Change of topic (948 Views) sekrah 05/24/2017 05:39PM
Re: Change of topic (1015 Views) mjellish 05/24/2017 10:52PM
Re: Change of topic (919 Views) jbelfior 05/25/2017 05:33AM
Re: Change of topic (884 Views) johnnym 05/25/2017 05:45AM
Re: Change of topic (930 Views) big18741 05/25/2017 07:45AM
Re: Change of topic (949 Views) Chas04 05/25/2017 08:50AM
Re: Change of topic (948 Views) mjellish 05/25/2017 09:00AM
Re: Change of topic (841 Views) Chas04 05/25/2017 09:04AM
Re: Change of topic (940 Views) mjellish 05/25/2017 09:10AM
Re: Change of topic (934 Views) Chas04 05/25/2017 09:31AM
Re: Change of topic (1027 Views) hellersorr 05/25/2017 11:13AM
Re: Change of topic (1061 Views) jimbo66 05/25/2017 01:26PM
Re: Change of topic (941 Views) mjellish 05/25/2017 06:44PM
Re: Change of topic (900 Views) sekrah 05/25/2017 05:38PM
Re: Change of topic (863 Views) Wrongly 05/25/2017 07:43PM
Re: Change of topic (857 Views) sekrah 05/25/2017 08:02PM
Re: Change of topic (949 Views) mjellish 05/26/2017 10:15AM
Re: Change of topic (846 Views) jbelfior 05/26/2017 10:46AM
Re: Change of topic (855 Views) sekrah 05/26/2017 12:43PM
Re: Change of topic (905 Views) johnnym 05/26/2017 02:02PM
Re: Change of topic (811 Views) jp702006 05/26/2017 03:08PM
Re: Change of topic (767 Views) johnnym 05/26/2017 03:11PM
Re: Change of topic (853 Views) atakante 05/26/2017 05:35PM
Re: Change of topic (898 Views) boardedup 05/26/2017 07:29PM
Re: Change of topic (895 Views) johnnym 05/27/2017 10:01AM
Re: Change of topic (984 Views) sekrah 05/27/2017 10:22AM
Re: Change of topic (1026 Views) atakante 05/23/2017 01:44PM
Re: Change of topic (1120 Views) metroj 05/23/2017 01:57PM
Re: Change of topic (1024 Views) legendbets 05/23/2017 02:47PM
Re: Change of topic (1112 Views) sekrah 05/23/2017 01:05PM
Re: Change of topic (971 Views) wherethevalue 05/23/2017 10:40PM
Re: Change of topic (963 Views) belmont3 05/24/2017 12:20AM
Re: Change of topic (889 Views) wherethevalue 05/24/2017 05:31PM
Re: Change of topic (1041 Views) sekrah 05/24/2017 04:28AM
Re: Change of topic (1043 Views) belmont3 05/24/2017 07:54AM
Re: Change of topic (897 Views) sekrah 05/24/2017 05:37PM
Re: Change of topic (886 Views) RICH 05/24/2017 05:48PM
Re: Change of topic (837 Views) sekrah 05/24/2017 05:55PM
Re: Change of topic (833 Views) RICH 05/24/2017 11:59PM
Re: Change of topic (873 Views) TempletonPeck 05/24/2017 07:04PM
Re: Change of topic (895 Views) sekrah 05/24/2017 07:26PM
Re: Change of topic (1076 Views) wherethevalue 05/24/2017 05:48PM


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