Re: Change of topic (892 Views)
Posted by:
wherethevalue (IP Logged)
Date: May 24, 2017 05:31PM
belmont3 Wrote:
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> How does one practically determine and/or quantify
> the incline/decline effect of a bias?
>
> If the incline/decline # is determined based on
> future efforts, would the inherent advantage be
> lost?
.
>
> Or does one (in theory) look at the performance
> numbers of all entrants that ran on that dead rail
> versus their prior efforts and attempt to
> 'predict' the probable incline/decline effect?
I remember Myakka River well :). I think it's important to rate how strong you thought the bias was first, i.e: GR -- (slightest advantage to rail) GR ++ (strongest advantage to rail, Feb. 16th on the inner at Aqueduct was one of the strongest I've ever seen.) against how much the horses with/against the bias figures inclined/declined in the current race.
That, combined with the extra data point of when they run back should give you a pretty clear understanding on how strong the bias was on that day.