Re: Change of topic (897 Views)
Posted by:
sekrah (IP Logged)
Date: May 24, 2017 07:26PM
TempletonPeck Wrote:
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> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > It's practically impossible to make a perfect
> > adjustment. If you try to get it too precise,
> you
> > risk getting it totally wrong.
>
> This, taken in combination with some of the things
> you've said in other threads (for instance,
> comments to the effect that a smart handicapper
> watches the replay of Always Dreaming's alw races
> and adjusts those figures to take into account
> that he was well in hand), leaves me scratching my
> head.
>
> It seems that your points can be combined to
> amount to "Do what Sekrah does, which can't
> exactly be described, or constrained by any firm
> rules."
>
> Here, you advocate adjusting for the dead rail,
> but not trying to do it very accurately? And you
> suggest that others are better off throwing darts?
By all means, you can certainly try to get as close as you think is accurate. Just for me it's a futile effort that ends up with information overload. Just based on my experience of trying to turn this game into an exact science, it never worked well for me. The more you shrink your sample size when creating a variant the more volatile it'll be. If you can pull it off profitably, you're a much better handicapper than I will ever be.
For me, making minute adjustments to figures is just feel and experience. Like the short game in golf. Analysis paralysis is death to my short game.