Re: Change of topic (1009 Views)
Posted by:
mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: May 24, 2017 10:52PM
For what it's worth, if you recall the CD track a year later on Derby Day 2012, there wasn't much passing going on in the stretch on the dirt track that day. Not a rail bias. A pure speed bias. I noticed it, and when Shackleford was running on the undercard I went all in on him. I didn't make $1M on that race, but I felt like I sorta got out on him. Later that day Bodemeister set what can only be called a suicidal pace in the Derby and almost hung on. I can't remember the fractions off the top of my head, but as I recall the half mile was low 45 and change, the 3/4 in 1:09 and change, and he still tried to run off and hide in the stretch before just being caught to lose by about a length.
Track Bias does exist.
Ever notice how the rail can be golden at Keeneland on sunny days when they are watering the track between races? Ever notice where the shadow from the rail falls on the track in the stretch? Imagine all the watering going on and one path in the stretch being in the shade most of the afternoon. You think that path is the same as the rest of the track. Watch a replay of the Bluegrass this year.
I remember a Breeders Cup at Belmont (1995) where every winner on the dirt was running in the tire tractor rut. The jockeys were even talking about it.
Bailey made an early move with Cigar on the turn just to make sure he got to that path in the stretch. If you ask him to this day he will tell you that. Didn't help us cappers much because trying to figure out who was going to get in that rut was nearly impossible. But it happened.
I'm not saying that AD won this year's Derby because of the track bias. But it certainly didn't hurt him at all, and he had a perfect trip all the way around.
Sure, I thought he was overrated off a bias assisted win. I also didn't like how he trained leading up to the Derby or the Preakness and knew he was going to be low odds. But the main reason to bet against him was that Pletcher's MO is not to run back on two weeks rest. He doesn't train them to run hard on short rest. That's not his program. It's all about spacing, especially with a light framed horse like AD.
AD looked light to me in the paddock too by the way. Lasix is tough on many of those light framed horses IMO. He was an easy bet against in the Preakness as the favorite.
I still missed cashing on the race because I pushed instead of hedging. But I'm over it and getting ready for the Belmont. The only thing I know right now is that if Pletcher gets Tapwrit to the gate I am going to handicap the race based on him sending for the lead right out of the gate.