Race #1 Belmont Wednesday.

To paraphrase Frank D - MSW races are essentially crap shoots.

[b]What I Noticed (but not through the TG lense)[/b]

#1 The entry - Top Owner, Top Trainer, Top Sire begs the question does Stronach have to pay himself $150K stallion fee? So why does trainer Jerkens do so poorly with first time turf starters? I'll depend on that and toss them.

#2 [b]Lets Get Loud[/b] I'll be curious about the post time price of this one? Reasoning that 4/1 on a Brown trainee is an overlay unless there is another Brown trainee in the race then it gets complicated.

#3 [b]Factorial[/b] has never passed a horse and I don't expect him to get the lead not a good prospect.

#4 [b]White Flag[/b] likely to be the favorite. M/L 5/2 not so bad considering the success trainer Clement has had shortening up in situations like this. My key to verticals.

#5 [b]Shidoshi[/b] As partial as I am to Japanese horses this one is name only. My pick as a potential pacesetter which didn't work out 1st try.

#6 [b]Master Merion[/b] OK this one is quicker than #5 and probable gets the lead trying once again to go gate to wire for the fourth time. Finishing just behind winners c/b called a pattern.

#7 [b]Positive Waves[/b] probably not compromised by the outside post position and attracts Irad Ortiz.

[b]The Essentials[/b]

So once again does this race offer value and if so where? Check the Thorograph analysis for an expert opinion.

A simple approach c/b 4/6 ebx. Arguable they both have been running against larger tougher fields.

If the #7 concerns you, as he does me, maybe use the 4/6/7 tri box. or ebx maybe the 6/7 ebx is more valuable.

Is the value in using the Chad Brown trainee in the top two positions or leaving him out?

How about getting one of the long shots at the bottom of the super? Either the #1 (there c/b two starting) or #5 Shidoshi (for Santana fans)

Last but not least In Mott I trust. Factorial has always worked on the fast side and his recent was worthy of note for those who care about such things.

I would never have gotten to this bottom line without jotting down my thoughts. The 2/3 ebx. A combination likely to be under appreciated because it requires two horses to improve significantly off sub par #'s.

Which horse will the syndicate(s) beat down?

Any Insight appreciated.