Re: Where's the outrage??? (class) (1061 Views)
Posted by:
Furious Pete (IP Logged)
Date: June 24, 2017 09:03AM
Nice pun.
Rich Curtis is right though BBB, you have to see that weight rule in relationship to how 1 point equals to two lengths at 10 furlongs and 1 length at 5 furlongs. What you find is that the relationship is completely linear "point wise", i.e 1 pound has the same effect on the figure no matter what the distance. From there you could certainly go on and make your point though, that the relationship really shouldn't be linear and that there exist some sort of "cut-off-point" in distance where the extra pounds has a bigger effect on the performance than what that linear relationship suggest. You would have to tie it up to a theory of some sort though, I guess breeding and to look at what these horses really are evolved to do could be relevant. I think what you would find though is that it would be difficult and even more "dubious" to try to get that curve correct, so you are probably better off to just keep it in mind while handicapping, anyway. Horses are individuals, after all.
And of course there are alternative views to it. There's also some common sense in the theory that high weight is most troublesome in the acceleration phase of the race, i.e in the start, and that this effect would be stronger the shorter the race is (less time to overturn that effect and more "need for speed" early). My guess is that all in all, the "linear approach" is probably the best way to go about it, from a figure making perspective.