The "fact sheet" he refers to was Brad Thomas, not us. But has anyone noticed a pattern here- that they continually give out alarmingly fast figures not in 2 turn races in general(they often have those slower than us), but specifically in the Wood? This is the third year in a row, by an amazing coincidence, that the horses in that race AS A GROUP jump up to figures much faster than you would think they wood(I mean would)run, on Ragozin.
Friedman's response, of course, glosses over the underlying theory that produces the figures- he just says they are right. Bottom line, they make their figures based on a set of dogmatic(and false)assumptions- one of them being that the relationship between 1 and 2 turn races is a constant. This is not something they test- they build a speed chart built on an AVERAGE relationship, and ASSUME it's a constant. As I have said before, if you have one foot in a fire and one in an ice bucket, on average you are nice and warm.
We're not done with this subject, but I would like to point out(as I did following the '00 Wood)that the problem extends far beyond having bad data to bet the Derby with, or even later races the Wood horses are in. You make your figures using past figures of the horses- in the '00 Derby, Ragozin had exactly one horse pairing up a top(and these are Sping 3yo's, mind you)- Fusiachi Pegasus, off the bad Wood number.



TGJB