My hurried take on the Pennsylvania Derby boils down to: Who'll run a 0 or less (with, of course, a good ground-saving trip). Note via the TG Archives that Baffert's BAYERN won this race by 6 lengths in 2014 with a -1.5.

A bunch of these runners have bone-rattlingly fast negative figures in their pasts. The essential task here is to interpolate their regression or recovery status. That's why I asked for Jerry's experienced eyes.

BOTTOM LINE: I'll be playing against Chad and Todd winning. Using Baffert and O'Neill no-brainers reluctantly. Playing/pressing/structuring around Navarro (GAME OVER) and Motion (IRISH WAR CRY). Hoping the bottom two can work out decent trips, which might not be easy here.

GAME OVER was only in Jorge Navarro's barn for a few days before he ran giant at Mountaineer. Even if he pairs that number (adding to the legend that Jerry's numbers are notoriously "straight”) he may still get a nice check here because he's in light at 117. Can second-time Navarro, with more time, on a more "home" track, with bullet works into this, be a good thing at 15-1 morning line?

Graham Motion says IRISH WAR CRY is training better than ever. Is he zig-zagging back to a negative number that can win this? I say yes.

Fascinating race.