Prior to the Tampa Derby I thought Quip was worth a play because at the time he had the appearance of a colt that could improve. Many pointed at his KYJC flop and tossed him from consideration. I really didn't look much further than his 10/1 price. That is to say I didn't consider his running style and the projected race dynamic which I normally do.

On Saturday Quip is expected to go off at near 9/2. Likely the third betting choice behind the first two finishers of the Rebel Magnum Moon and Solomini but ahead of OP proven Combatant.

Many will simply decide if they expect Quip to improve again and if they do they'll include him in their investment in some way.I on the other must complicate this problem. All of Quip's competitive races involved him running on or with the pacesetter. His Tampa race had what I consider a slow pace. Yet Flameaway imo, not a strong finisher made up a lot of ground late.

Quip's only bad race may have been a function of not being in a front running position due to trouble or pace. Quip will almost certainly have to run faster Sat. to get the lead. Both Tenfold and Machisimo can get in the way and both the two favorites seem versatile. Solomini set the pace in the BC juvenile and the 46[sup]3[/sup] was big league.

So while some read Quip as a likely bouncer I contend he can not get the position he needs to control the race up front and consequently will be a an also ran.

Short of Machisimo freaking and running fast it looks like the top three from the Rebel and new shooter Tenfold given that jockey Espinoza doesn't burn him up early chasing Solomini w/b the top four.

Alternatively, Assmussen could use Tenfold to try and get improving and too late running Dream Baby Dream some more points, Either way Quip looks to be between a rock and a hard place to me.

I guess one could also put a line through Beautiful Shot's Gotham. Lastly, after watching Magnum Moon's recent gallop @ OP he has, to my eye, really filled out as I once predicted. No longer looking leggy and awkward and may just join the top two Kentucky Derby Contenders.

O'boy another case of Equine Amore'

[i]Edit - My memory may be in error re: Flameaway finish in Tampa Derby, apologies.[/i]