Re: Pletcher and the three week turnaround (974 Views)
Posted by:
TempletonPeck (IP Logged)
Date: April 17, 2018 12:38AM
If I were you, and I wanted this information, here's what I might do:
Go to the Redboard Room, and download (for free!) the TGs from Oaklawn's Saturday races. You'll have Magnum Moon's sheet, which has the following stats for TAP bringing horses back in 11-29 days: 4724 starts, wins at 24%, ITM 55% (vs. 24% wins and 54% ITM overall), with 15% tops and 32% pairs (vs. 17% and 31% overall).
At this point I'd be thinking "Ok that's a nice start, but 11-29 days includes 2 and 4 weeks rest, and this sample includes older horses (and younger, for that matter), so my work is not yet done!"
What I really want is information about 3yos, and more specifically derby trail 3yos, and probably most specifically how his horses do *in the Derby* off 3 weeks rest.
Lucky for us, we refer to the Archives where the sheets for all Derby runners back to 1997 are available, and we start looking for TAP horses that came in off 3 weeks.
At this point I'm going to turn it back over to you.
Cliff's Notes: Yeah, really.