My Early Stab at the Actual off odds on the Derby. A few decisions still remain on the field I believe including whether Quip runs in the race or not. I have also included last year's final guess I posted on 4/30/17 and the actual off rank and off odds below this year's field, if interested.

This one is a very, very difficult Derby field to assess in this fashion at this point. I didn't dedicate as much time on this first stab as I have in some prev years but I may update it in another 10-14 days with more information becoming available. I was also missing a piece of information I usually have but wanted to get this out there early. I have Hofburg and Gronkowski lower than most think out of guessing that Hofburg will be the wise guy horse and Gronkowski will take the NFL fan's money from testosterone filled knuckleheads of all ages playing large bets on GRONK. I didn't think that could be true to such an extent until Patch was 14-1 last year (Pollard's Vision for the same trainer in '04 was 24-1). Also, Magnum Moon probably far higher than people think but the word is out on the Ark Derby being slowish it seems. This does add up to the correct amount of points which many don't pay attention to although they should. Go ahead and start tearing it apart, no hard feelings at all as it will help me tweak it more in the coming days.


1. Justify, 2.90-1
2. Mendohlssen, 5.60-1
3. Audible, 6.10-1
4. Good Magic, 11.50-1
5. Bolt d'Oro, 12.80-1
6. Vino Rossi, 14.60-1
7. Magnum Moon, 17.50-1
8. Hofburg, 18.20-1
9. My Boy Jack, 22.80-1
10. Enticed, 26.00-1
11. Gronkowski, 27.00-1
12. Noble Indy, 28.60-1
13. Quip, 29.30-1
14. Solomini, 32.30-1
15. Promises Fulfilled, 36.00-1
16. Flameaway, 37.10-1
17. Bravazo, 43.40-1
18. Free Drop Billy, 46.60-1
19. Firenze Fire, 54.50-1
20. Lone Sailor, 57.80-1

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Last year's Early Stab on 4/30 (last attempt)

My Attempt by Rank, Name, Odds. Actual Rank and Actual Off Odds to the Right in Bold

1. Always Dreaming, 4.20-1  [b]1st choice, 4.70-1[/b]
2. Classic Empire, 4.50-1  [b]3rd choice, 6.80-1[/b]
3. McCracken, 7.40-1  [b]4th choice, 6.90-1[/b]
4. Irish War Cry, 8.50-1  [b]2nd choice, 4.80-1[/b]
5. Gunnevera, 10.30-1  [b]5th choice, 10.00-1[/b]
6. Thunder Snow, 15.60-1  [b]8th choice, 16.40-1[/b]
7. Practical Joke, 17.50-1  [b]12th choice, 27.80-1[/b]
8. Gormley, 18.20-1  [b]10th choice, 22.30-1[/b]
9. Hence, 19.40-1  [b]7th choice, 15.00-1[/b]
10. Girvin, 23.30-1  [b]9th choice, 22.10-1[/b]
11. Irap, 24.00-1  [b]16th choice, 41.40-1[/b]
12. Tapwrit, 26.00-1  [b]11th choice, 27.10-1[/b]
13. Lookin At Lee, 30.20-1  [b]13th choice, 33.20-1[/b]
14. J Boys Echo, 32.30-1  [b]18th choice, 47.30-1[/b]
15. Battle of Midway, 33.40-1  [b]15th choice, 40.00-1[/b]
16. State of Honor, 37.40-1  [b]19th choice, 54.00-1[/b]
17. Untrapped, 39.00-1  [b]20th choice, 58.00-1[/b]
18. Patch, 46.60-1  [b]6th choice, 14.10-1[/b]
19. Sonneteer, 54.50-1  [b]14th choice, 39.70-1[/b]
20. Fast and Accurate, 70.40-1 [b]17th choice, 41.80-1[/b]