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 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023  • 1 Specials Available
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Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1257 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: April 17, 2018 10:22PM

Clearly missed the mark on him according to some texts I've received already as well.

A few notes on MM though.

Keeping him lower is his undefeated record for certain and many of the future books have him very low. So I could be way off here but....

Here are some thoughts on why he might be a little higher than some are thinking right now. Top Beyer figure has not been over 100 and Justify, Mendehlsson, and Bolt all with figures over 100 to date. Good Magic is a 2yo champ and Chad Brown's Only horse. MM is Trained by Pletcher but Johnny V and JJ are elsewhere (I understand Saez has been with him since debut but thinking some may push their money in JV and JJ direction). Pletcher has four of them in the race and all four of them won their last prep. I think the Pletcher money gets spread out a bit b/c of the jock assignments.

In 2015, Materiality came in to the Derby with 3 starts all at 3, All at GP. He was undefeated with Beyer Figs of 87, 102, 110 in the Florida Derby. He went off at 11.50-1 while stablemate Carpe Diem went off third choice 7.70-1. Carpe Diem came in with a record of 5-4-1-0 with a best fig of 98. Johnny V rode Carpe and JJ rode Materiality. So, when Pletcher has these multiple horses in these Derbies some surprising things happen with his horses it seems. I'm not married to 17-1 and will think it through some more but there are reasons to believe he won't be 2nd choice as some are believing. If I could amend it I'd play around with putting him closer to the 10-1 mark while adjusting others and not even sure if lower or higher just yet.

Thanks for the feedback.



Subject Written By Posted
Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (2010 Views) Fairmount1 04/17/2018 09:37PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1136 Views) TempletonPeck 04/17/2018 09:52PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1091 Views) jbrown007 04/17/2018 09:54PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1257 Views) Fairmount1 04/17/2018 10:22PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1200 Views) Gerard 04/18/2018 01:04PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1187 Views) TGJB 04/18/2018 01:31PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (998 Views) Gerard 04/18/2018 02:25PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1233 Views) jbelfior 04/18/2018 04:40PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1002 Views) RICH 04/18/2018 08:15AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1228 Views) Tavasco 04/18/2018 08:20AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1088 Views) toppled 04/18/2018 10:07AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1161 Views) ajkreider 04/18/2018 07:07PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1130 Views) Tavasco 04/18/2018 08:17PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (923 Views) ajkreider 04/18/2018 08:51PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (900 Views) Tavasco 04/18/2018 09:23PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1548 Views) jp702006 04/18/2018 09:31PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1056 Views) Tavasco 04/18/2018 09:46PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (918 Views) jp702006 04/18/2018 09:52PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (963 Views) Tavasco 04/18/2018 10:58PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (970 Views) RICH 04/18/2018 10:00PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (925 Views) ajkreider 04/19/2018 10:59AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (914 Views) Gerard 04/19/2018 12:46PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (887 Views) bluechip21 04/19/2018 12:51PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (891 Views) Gerard 04/19/2018 12:54PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (880 Views) bluechip21 04/19/2018 12:58PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (939 Views) big18741 04/19/2018 01:14PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1021 Views) TGJB 04/19/2018 01:47PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1003 Views) ajkreider 04/19/2018 02:19PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (876 Views) jbelfior 04/19/2018 08:24PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (899 Views) Tavasco 04/19/2018 09:00PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (971 Views) TGJB 04/19/2018 11:21PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (831 Views) Tavasco 04/19/2018 11:38PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (910 Views) Fairmount1 04/19/2018 11:53PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1063 Views) rhagood 04/19/2018 12:02AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1028 Views) wrongly1 04/19/2018 08:51AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (883 Views) toppled 04/19/2018 10:27AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1053 Views) Chas04 04/19/2018 10:30AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (950 Views) Tavasco 04/20/2018 07:50PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1053 Views) Niall 04/20/2018 09:46PM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1271 Views) Tavasco 04/21/2018 06:36AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1062 Views) TGJB 04/21/2018 11:39AM
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1120 Views) jwbcardinals 04/19/2018 11:59AM


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