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Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1219 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: April 18, 2018 08:20AM
I just read that Wynn's Las Vegas has both Good Magic and Bolt d'Oro @ 7/1. That surprises me some. But their line doesn't have to balance.
My guess is that currently they want to create an image that the race is going to be competitive and with many horses having a chance to win. Such a good crop this year and at nearly half the size as previously to boot.
Fairmount has to take mob psychology into account to get his product right. That is tricky this far in advance because we don't know who and how the spinmasters will treat the players.
Then we have me looking at the race as a regular bettor. In all years past I tried to pick a bomb, a lonshot but this year I look at the race and see only two horses who have a chance to win. I think TG has more influence on me than ever before.
A Minus 4 and a SoCal # that usually seems to understate the performance actually turned in on Derby day. Plus both contenders run at or near the front i.e. little or no ground loss. So am I to believe some late running ground losing longshot is going to run a minus six or seven to upset the favorites.
No, no, no the group sings the favorites are going to bounce. Oh yeah, from outfits that seem to manage bounces better than most. Even a three or four point regression makes them faster than the second tier who are unlikely, we've learned, to improve in a tougher and longer race.
So my line is even money on each of the top two and a couple of hundred to one on all the rest.
Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1993 Views)
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Fairmount1 |
04/17/2018 09:37PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1128 Views)
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TempletonPeck |
04/17/2018 09:52PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1082 Views)
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jbrown007 |
04/17/2018 09:54PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1251 Views)
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Fairmount1 |
04/17/2018 10:22PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1193 Views)
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Gerard |
04/18/2018 01:04PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1179 Views)
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TGJB |
04/18/2018 01:31PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (991 Views)
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Gerard |
04/18/2018 02:25PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1225 Views)
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jbelfior |
04/18/2018 04:40PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (996 Views)
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RICH |
04/18/2018 08:15AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1219 Views) |
Tavasco |
04/18/2018 08:20AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1081 Views)
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toppled |
04/18/2018 10:07AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1153 Views)
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ajkreider |
04/18/2018 07:07PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1122 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/18/2018 08:17PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (916 Views)
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ajkreider |
04/18/2018 08:51PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (894 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/18/2018 09:23PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1531 Views)
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jp702006 |
04/18/2018 09:31PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1049 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/18/2018 09:46PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (909 Views)
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jp702006 |
04/18/2018 09:52PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (955 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/18/2018 10:58PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (962 Views)
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RICH |
04/18/2018 10:00PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (916 Views)
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ajkreider |
04/19/2018 10:59AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (907 Views)
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Gerard |
04/19/2018 12:46PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (879 Views)
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bluechip21 |
04/19/2018 12:51PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (884 Views)
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Gerard |
04/19/2018 12:54PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (875 Views)
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bluechip21 |
04/19/2018 12:58PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (931 Views)
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big18741 |
04/19/2018 01:14PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1014 Views)
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TGJB |
04/19/2018 01:47PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (996 Views)
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ajkreider |
04/19/2018 02:19PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (870 Views)
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jbelfior |
04/19/2018 08:24PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (892 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/19/2018 09:00PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (960 Views)
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TGJB |
04/19/2018 11:21PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (824 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/19/2018 11:38PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (904 Views)
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Fairmount1 |
04/19/2018 11:53PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1056 Views)
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rhagood |
04/19/2018 12:02AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1022 Views)
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wrongly1 |
04/19/2018 08:51AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (876 Views)
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toppled |
04/19/2018 10:27AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1044 Views)
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Chas04 |
04/19/2018 10:30AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (942 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/20/2018 07:50PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1046 Views)
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Niall |
04/20/2018 09:46PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1264 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/21/2018 06:36AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1055 Views)
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TGJB |
04/21/2018 11:39AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1111 Views)
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jwbcardinals |
04/19/2018 11:59AM |
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