After some thought about info I could use myself, I looked up last year's Oaks/Derby Doubles.

Patch was 17th choice in the Oaks/Derby Double bets with Abel Tasman.

When Bloodhorse posted the article with will pays on May 5th after the Oaks (Friday evening), Patch was 14-1 in the win pool at that time which is where he where he ended up on Derby Day. Others moved a bit in the win pools but Patch from the 20 hole stayed there.

Ultimately, that "dumb" money likely is only in the win pool (and place/show pools?) on a horse with the media steam or NFL Gronk steam, if interested. I received a few texts and emails believing this to be true....seems to be accurate.