Well, looks like I am going to jinx myself again.

First off, thank you to TG for a great race of the week. Really really chewy race.

Agree that Oscar Nominated runs the most consistent efforts and with an decent trip hard to imagine him not needing to be on tickets (Although Rosario has made me tear my hair out before).

The horse that interests me the most in the race and who I am going to use as a co-key with Oscar Nominated is Canessar.

This is really a pattern play, but to me an exceptionally strong pattern play.

First off, you have a horse trying a mile and a half off a layoff. That is a big question, but look at this horse's history off layoffs -- from 2yo year to 3yo year, from 3yo year to 4 yo year, from europe to Maryland. Every time horse moves forward.

With the exception of the outside horse, this horse is the most lightly raced horse in the race, and in general the horse just has a steady forward moving developmental pattern. Only bounce was off a lifetime top jump up first lasix late in season. Totally excusable bounce.

Arguably, this horse is coming into this race off a 0-2-X (it is a 0-2-6months off -- but that is close to being a 0-2-X)

Also, I like this horse's european form.....his last 5 races in Europe were all in races longer that 12 panels and he was taking the lead and getting caught....so the Laurel first lasix lifetime top was also shortening up in distance. His last three european races were 5s at either 14 or 15 panels where he was leading. in my view, those numbers need to be treated like they are even better when you think he is getting a quarter of a mile or more less distance today. If any of the other horses in this race were running 14 or 15 furlongs, I doubt they could have done as well as he did (and it was without lasix).

I also find his workout pattern very intriguing. HAs anybody ever seen a horse with 3 workouts in 8 days? look at his last three at Tampa. Very interesting. The turf work around the dogs on this surface looks good too. Have to think Trainer is pointing to this race.

Finally, this is a horse that is usually well backed. His longest odds in his career was in a G2 against the future Breeders Cup Turf winner where he was 6-1. He was the favorite out of 12 horses in the autumn version of this race last out. If he was favorite there, I do not see what he has done since then to justify morning line odds of 15-1.

Again, given this opus, I have probably stuck a fork in this horse, but I am going to put my money where my keyboard is and go down with this ship.