I’ll take up Paolo’s question about what we might learn from the performances of Instilled Regard and Bravazo (not having bet either of them) in the Derby. I apologize in advance for the scattered nature of my thoughts.

One thing that TGJB has been saying in the seminars that is finally sinking in with me is that training patterns have changed (i.e., less is more) in recent years, leading to an increased number of tops in the Derby. Accordingly, although I have generally used all the data from the archives in my Derby handicapping, today I’m trying a new approach, using only data from the Derby-points-system era (starting with 2013). My data is hand-entered, so please forgive any errors.

The seminar says that recent stats suggest in a 20-horse field, we could expect two tops (10%). Indeed there were: Instilled Regard and Bravazo. My stats (2013-2017) show 12.5% new tops (12 out of 96).

With regard to predicting who might run those new tops, the seminar relied on pattern data. In their last races, Instilled Regard ran an “Off” race (1.25 off top) and Bravazo ran an “X.” Since 2013, the only horse to run a new top in the Derby off a bad race was Frammento, who improved 3 points (to a 3.25) in the Derby after running 1.25 points off his top in his prior race. In that sample there were 6 horses coming into the Derby off an “X” and 15 coming in off an “Off.”

In retrospect, one might point out that Instilled Regard had a 2yo top of 4 and so had lots of room to improve. Also, his pattern was based on a slight regression in the Santa Anita Derby. TG had that race slower than other figure makers (where IS Jimbo?). Make that race a little faster and Instilled Regard would have been entering the Derby off a series of “Pairs.”

One thing that Instilled Regard and Bravazo had “going for them” (?) is that they were slow going into the Derby. It makes some sense that horses who have already run very fast will have more difficulty improving their performance than horses who have not. From 2013 through 2017, there were 48 horses coming into the Derby off a top worse than 2, and 48 who were coming in off a top of 2 or better. In the fast group, there were only two (Firing Line and American Pharoah) who ran new tops in the Derby. In the slow group, there were ten new tops, including four new tops of 3 points or more. Instilled Regard and Bravazo add to the stats of the slow group. In addition to having more room to improve, it is also possible that slow horses are more likely to improve because their jockeys know they are slow and ride more conservatively, hoping to get a check.

Of course, as Instilled Regard and Bravazo demonstrated, even if you are right about who is going to improve, betting on slow horses to improve enough to hit the board isn't necessarily a recipe for parimutuel success. They followed Frammento, Keen Ice, and Mylute in failing to crack the trifecta.