Re: Man Bites Dog (833 Views)
Posted by:
Furious Pete (IP Logged)
Date: May 14, 2018 12:25PM
Do a little search for Kelly Criterion in the forum archives, and you can see that MathCapper has answered this in great extent multiple times. If you believe this is the most important question in wagering, you should really check that out. You can also use 1/2 Kelly, 1/4 Kelly as per your own preferences - but MathCapper has this covered. Full Kelly is very aggressive, and might very well lead to "gamblers ruin" as I now see you referred to in another post. In simplistic terms, with Kelly Criterion you increase the percentage of your bankroll wagered as your edge increases, and as the odds decreases, thus answering your very hypothetical question.
I believe one could get in the ballpark by just internalizing this as a simple rule of thumb, let me rephrase it as a rap lyric: "You can tap it hard' when you dig your edge, n' if the odds is cheap, don't hedge".
A simple way to combat gamblers ruin is to play with a fractional Kelly, and then withdraw a good chunk of your bankroll after you reach your first zillion or so, maybe buy a cruise ship or something for the money and continue gambling with the rest. Then you wouldn't need to worry about losing it all in a bad streak, and you could even trade your cruise ship in to a lesser boat if you still want to continue betting after that horrible experience of losing your remaining bankroll. (the example is scalable)