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Re: Man Bites Dog (833 Views)
Posted by: Furious Pete (IP Logged)
Date: May 14, 2018 12:25PM

Do a little search for Kelly Criterion in the forum archives, and you can see that MathCapper has answered this in great extent multiple times. If you believe this is the most important question in wagering, you should really check that out. You can also use 1/2 Kelly, 1/4 Kelly as per your own preferences - but MathCapper has this covered. Full Kelly is very aggressive, and might very well lead to "gamblers ruin" as I now see you referred to in another post. In simplistic terms, with Kelly Criterion you increase the percentage of your bankroll wagered as your edge increases, and as the odds decreases, thus answering your very hypothetical question.

I believe one could get in the ballpark by just internalizing this as a simple rule of thumb, let me rephrase it as a rap lyric: "You can tap it hard' when you dig your edge, n' if the odds is cheap, don't hedge".

A simple way to combat gamblers ruin is to play with a fractional Kelly, and then withdraw a good chunk of your bankroll after you reach your first zillion or so, maybe buy a cruise ship or something for the money and continue gambling with the rest. Then you wouldn't need to worry about losing it all in a bad streak, and you could even trade your cruise ship in to a lesser boat if you still want to continue betting after that horrible experience of losing your remaining bankroll. (the example is scalable)



Subject Written By Posted
Man Bites Dog (2806 Views) TGJB 05/07/2018 02:21PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1527 Views) TGJB 05/07/2018 03:47PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1444 Views) Tavasco 05/11/2018 08:05AM
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Re: Man Bites Dog (1083 Views) Furious Pete 05/12/2018 08:27AM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1050 Views) TempletonPeck 05/12/2018 12:43PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1086 Views) TGJB 05/12/2018 08:05PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1030 Views) Furious Pete 05/12/2018 08:19PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (881 Views) Paolo 05/14/2018 11:28AM
Re: Man Bites Dog (932 Views) Wild Again 05/14/2018 12:08PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (833 Views) Furious Pete 05/14/2018 12:25PM
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Re: Man Bites Dog (909 Views) TGJB 05/14/2018 02:50PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1340 Views) TGJB 05/12/2018 11:05AM
Re: Man Bites Dog (945 Views) Furious Pete 05/12/2018 01:41PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (995 Views) TGJB 05/12/2018 07:57PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (937 Views) Furious Pete 05/12/2018 08:17PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1069 Views) Paolo 05/12/2018 05:25PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1186 Views) TGJB 05/12/2018 07:51PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1046 Views) Furious Pete 05/12/2018 09:09PM
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Re: Man Bites Dog (868 Views) jerry 06/07/2018 12:53PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1116 Views) TGJB 05/13/2018 01:58PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (998 Views) TreadHead 05/13/2018 08:28PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1003 Views) TGJB 05/13/2018 10:41PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (916 Views) Wild Again 05/13/2018 10:47PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1024 Views) ajkreider 05/13/2018 11:39PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (1052 Views) TGJB 05/26/2018 11:08AM
Re: Man Bites Dog (915 Views) smalltimer 05/26/2018 01:17PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (998 Views) TGJB 06/06/2018 06:21PM
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Re: Man Bites Dog (1106 Views) TGJB 06/06/2018 11:24PM
Re: Man Bites Dog (923 Views) hellersorr 06/07/2018 12:04AM
Re: Man Bites Dog (915 Views) P-Dub 06/07/2018 02:52AM


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