Re: I Will Be the First (1334 Views)
Posted by:
mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: May 21, 2018 01:39PM
What i was told was that Justify rebroke when saw Bravazzo at the wire. If he passed him at all it was briefly.
I dunno what the number will be. Guess would be -1 or -.075 depending upon ground. Cant tell where Justify was on 2nd turn, maybe 3 path average? But running eyeball to eyeball for the first mile is tough on any horse. What happened to AP when Frosted ran with him in the Travers?
Speaking of AP.
On an equally sloppy pimlico track Pharoah went 22.90, 46.49, 111.42, 137.74, 158.46 and was pulling away to win by 7 as he came home his last 3/16 in 20.72.
Justify went 23.22, 47.29, 111.42, 136.10, 155.93 going eyeball to eyeball with good magic all the way around and still had enough left to come home his last 3/16 in 19.83 and hold off late runners.
You cant necessarily compare raw times from days 3 days apart let alone 3 years. But in this case by my math the variant is about the same for both days.
So Justify ran eyeball to eyeball, faster, and was wider than AP. So whether he regressed a bit or not, that was a good performance IMO.
I have no opinion on whether this means Justify is more or less likely to bounce in the Belmont. They are all different and handle it differently. Percentages would say if you’re going to bet he’s a bet against though. More people have walked on the moon than there are horses who have won the triple crown.