johnnym Wrote:
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> Very interesting race to me

[i]Andrew Beyer on DRF Podcast or video interview believes this is the 3rd most important race in the USA 1) BC Classic 2) Kentucky Derby 3) or BEL Stakes in yrs where TC is at stake.[/i]

> 1) [b]Mind Your Biscuits[/b] 5/2 Dead closer fastest horse has not won at the distance in two try’s. Don’t like the draw.

[i]As consistently good as this one is, he's giving weight, has a jockey capable of bonehead decisions and as Johnnym hints at will need to pass too many horses to get home first. His potential absence from the verticals c/b a lucrative angle.[/i]

> 2) [b]Bolt d'Oro[/b] 4/1 Interesting to me with the weight break. Heard Chad say this horse could be a beast at a mile. Yes a bit weak on # power and Ruiz not exactly lighting up the board.

[i]Getting 3 or 4 lbs vs most of these doesn't strike me as enough of an advantage. @ m/l price I'd have to assign a winning probability of 20% or better. I expect Geroux to get him a good trip but like many would have rather seen him run in the Woody Stevens and I don't think he'd win that either. Toss.[/i]

> 3) [b]Limousine Liberal[/b] Has never run a mile a sprinter strechting out? Very nice numbers @ 10-1 and should get the jump on the closers

[i]I absolutely believe LL has better than a 10% chance of winning this contest, His last was @ 7F and he was the best finisher that day if memory serves. Terrific key in the verticals at anything near the M/L price.[/i]

> 4) [b]McCracken[/b] Very interesting to me backs up to what many thought was his natural distance 2-2 at the distance Comes of the layof and pairs his top. 12-1

[i]He looked good last out as he and a couple of other closers ran down so-called cheap speed. He may improve but whatever improvement will probably be offset by ground loss. I respect the rider but not the trainer move from Alw to this race - NOT.[/i]

> 5) [b]Good Samaritan[/b] 10/1 Ortiz riding shortening up has put some good works in he did pair his top last out.

[i]What a curious career. Mott switchs him from the lawn to the dirt for the Jim Dandy last year. He's been keeping good company ever since. A must use vertically but not on top.[/i]

> 6) [b]One Liner[/b] Pletcher at Belmont surprise he only runs 15% new tops. Has the stalking style to have first run coming in light as well. Would need a new top to win

[i]This one has been beating up on lesser. A rare opportunity to dismiss a TAP trainee for me. Capable of improving but I'll let him beat me.[/i]

> 7) [b]Discreet Lover[/b] 50/1 don’t like

[i]One of a bunch of late runners would really surprise me and undermine my confidence terrible if he ends up in th top 5. Can't find an easier spot?[/i]

> 8) [b]Ransom The Moon[/b] Has never ran the distance and has never won past 6.5 F shipping in gives reason for confidence Defintily has the number power distance is the concern

[i]By Malibu Moon and veteran of last years BC sprint. Under the radar and no celebrity consequently valuable in the verticals. A great example of how TG #'s illuminate a contender that might not otherwise be noticed,[/i]


> 9) [b]Warrior's Club[/b] 20/1 Ran a new top in the slop last out but prior to that he was showing an erratic but improving patter.

[i]A journeyman midwestern runner. Sometimes I think DWL just needs to be in the top races and circles. What does one do after having been king of the mountain. The price is right and its no surprise when he surprises.[/i]


> 10) [b]Bee Jersey[/b] 5/1 The speed if it’s holding will be dangerous. I like his pattern and thoropattern shows 37% new top Asmussen runs just ok at Belmont

[i]The now horses. None have finished in the same zip code as this one this year. He humbled Girvin last out. Asmussen is formidable. I suppose this one is the most likely winner in my view and consequently an overlay at the m/l.[/i]

11) [b]Awesome Slew[/b] 6/1 Finished 4th in the race last year despite running a respectful #.Third race of the layoff is he still hungover from that big new top?

[i]A must use and 6/1 a square price albeit not a overlay imo.[/i]


> All things considered first thought is the 4.
> I think he is sitting on a big race following that
> layoff, needs to avoid traffic hopefully gets thru
> on the rail and enjoy that stretch.
> I do not expect him to go of at 12-1 though

[i]3 + 10 / 3+5+8+10+11/ 3+5+8+10+11[/i]