Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (1052 Views)
Posted by:
BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: July 08, 2018 07:58PM
There are actually two separate issues here: Jason Servis's "hot streak" and the late action.
I'm skeptical that NYRA can do anything about the former.
I've been watching a lot of NY racing lately, and it is not surprising to me for a Servis trainee to take more action than the figures would seem to warrant. What was unusual in the Dwyer was how late the money came in. My impression (perhaps mistaken) has been that the money shows early. For example, in the race after the Dwyer, Eye Luv Lulu was 7-1 when I noted the early odds and then drifted up to close at 10-1.
Some possible explanations for the late action in the Dwyer:
Fans of the past-posting narrative would probably note that Firenze Fire broke extremely well.
The composition of the betting public may have been a little different in this race than in a normal dirt stake because of the presence of Mendelssohn. I'm guessing that international money would have come in early.
A lot of people may have been sucked in by the 6-1. That was my situation. I kept waiting for the odds to drop and when they appeared to be holding up, I made a small saver play (less that .01% of $90,000). When the odds dropped, my saver was too small to save me.
The computer guys may have screwed up. I know they have algorithms, but algorithms are only as good as the world view they represent. (Anyone remember Lehman Brothers?) The computer guys may have imperfect information about what other computer groups (or some loose-cannon big bettor) are going to do.
Whatever the explanation, I agree that NYRA and/or the Gaming Commission should look into the late betting and publicize the results. I'm not optimistic this will happen. Transparency does not seem to be a priority for the officials who regulate NY racing. Try reading a NY stewards' decision some time (e.g, "After reviewing the video and speaking to the riders involved the claim of foul is disallowed and the race is official as is. Boilerplate. Boilerplate. Boilerplate.").