Re: If program betting can be this wise . . . (970 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: July 09, 2018 01:17AM
FrankD. Wrote:
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> Rocky could you please do some math for us?
> I ve seen 2 places where it is stated that 90 of
> the last 105k bet into the win pool was on FF. If
> that is the case than the 45k Finley is throwing
> out is off.
Frank --
Unfortunately I wasn't around to grab the marginal pools during that race like I usually do, or I would have been able to pin down to the dollar how much was bet on FF in each late flash.
I can still back-engineer it, but not without making some assumptions and approximations. After doing so I'm not sure either one of those estimates is right. Without being able to confirm how much total money was bet in that last flash though it's hard to tell.
That $105K figure wherein FF dropped from 5-1 to 5/2 doesn't make sense because at least three of the entries, particularly Mendy, could not have drifted up as much as they did in that last flash if that were the case, given the odds they were at the time FF was 5-1.
As best I can ascertain, it looks like they're right that around $90K was bet on FF in that late flash, but the marginal pool looks like it was more like $170K than $105K, which means FF took a little over half of the final marginal pool and his marginal odds were around 3/5. Mendy's corresponding marginal odds were over 10-1, which is quite rare for an odds-on horse going in the gate.
Wish I had those marginal pools to nail down those numbers exactly because this one looked to be quite an anomaly.