Re: Late odds changes in Dwyer (1030 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: July 09, 2018 01:55PM
BitPlayer Wrote:
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> The replays on nyra.com often pick up well before
> the horses enter the gate. In this case, we can
> see that Firenze Fire was 6-1 and Seven Trumpets
> drifted from 14-1 to 15-1 as they were circling
> behind the gate. In the first flash after the
> gates opened, Firenze Fire had dropped to 5-1 and
> Seven Trumpets had dropped to 12-1. By the time
> they hit the 6f pole, they were 5-2 and 10-1,
> respectively. Based on a couple of sets of DD
> probables from the prior race, I guessed Firenze
> Fire would be 3.8-1 and Seven Trumpets would be
> 8.5-1.
>
> I wonder if the batch bettors underestimated the
> amount of late money that would come in on Firenze
> Fire.
Surprisingly, I never seem to see this happen. I see scenarios like FF all the time, where the horse is 5-1 loading into the gate and 3.8-1 in the Will Pays, so you expect the horse to get bet down to 4-1 or 7/2 in the last flash. The vast majority of they do, sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less (if they don't, the odds of you cashing that win ticket drop precipitously).
You'd think that with all the computer teams out there looking at that 5-1 price, with "fair value" having already bet set at 3.8-1 in the Will Pays, that they might all jump in independent of one another at the last second and inadvertently pound that horse down well below that 3.8-1 fair value with all their big bets, but it doesn't seem to happen.
Perhaps the invisible hand of the market? Or maybe the big batch bettors got burned enough times by betting such horses down to the point that they're underlays that they've developed means to estimate the amount of expected late action from the other computer teams and adjusted accordingly to prevent overbetting.