My guess that the late action on FF was a combination of the computer teams and big bettor(s) (with some inside info that FF was a good thing?) got a little more support with that Finley update. The $24,055 and $11,596 win bets smack of computer teams. The precise, odd amounts are their exact MO based on the output from their algos telling them exactly how much they should wager. The $60K bet in twelve $5K increments is not the MO of a computer team at all – it smacks of one big bettor, possibly on-track.

One reliable twitter source tweeted that he spoke with a very large on-track bettor that informed him that it’s possible to place $5K wagers at the $50 NYRA windows, and that one can fire off such bets in rapid succession to get down as much as $100K in less than 30 seconds. You don’t need to be a CAW team with “direct access” to the wagering pools (not sure if they have this ability?) or even an ADW bettor with simple batch betting capability, although that certainly makes things easier.

Another twitter source did a deep dive into the effect of that particular $60K bet. He noted that without that bet, the payoff on FF would have been around $8.50, much closer to FF’s 7/2 implied final odds based on the Will Pays.

So it looks like the computer teams did what they always do – they bet the horse down late, right to what the implied final odds were based on the Will Pays. Simultaneously, it looks like some big bettor also came in with that $60K wager and drove the horse down even further to 5/2.

Does that mean something nefarious was going on? Not necessarily, but several facts certainly make it look suspicious:

(a) the fact that FF got pounded down to well below the 7/2 implied final odds based on the Will Pays
(b) the fact that the bet came in at the last possible second
(c) the fact that FF went on to win in an absolute laugher with a likely big new top in near-record time

Did he risk being shut out by betting so late? Sure, but to my mind, that's even more of an indication that “somebody knew something” and wanted to get as big a bet down as late as possible so as to hide it from the sharpie board watchers looking for just such signs of “smart money” action. By rattling off $5K bets in rapid succession after the last odds flash went up until the windows closed, he was able to get as much down as he could without tipping off the board watchers before the race went off. I wouldn’t be surprised if he were standing at the $50K window watching the horses load into the gate as he bet (because of the latency issue with online feeds, if you’re looking to get down a bet at the last possible second, it’s actually much better to bet at the track), and that he would have bet even more if he could have within the time frame available.

All speculation of course, and a $60K bet at the last second doesn’t necessarily mean there was a betting coup going on, but it certainly wouldn’t be the first time. It’s happened at the track since time immemorial, this would just be one of the more recent and egregious examples of it. And granted, $60K isn’t all that much when you look at the kinds of lines these computer teams are swinging around on a regular basis, but it’s still “six stacks of high society" as Richie noted, a figure at which Knish would certainly advise exercising a little more prudence.