Re: Paul Matties segment with Steve Byk (1012 Views)
Posted by:
BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: July 13, 2018 09:49AM
Mathcapper -
I didn't understand Matties's argument that the ability of the computer groups to analyze the betting in one pool and then make another pool align with it is particularly valuable. If a favorite is overbet in the win pool, there is no advantage to making him overbet in the exacta pool.
I do understand from your previous posts that there is a "wisdom of crowds" factor built into the models. Maybe there is also a "wisdom of unexpected late money" factor involved?
I'm not sure I agree with the arm-the-players solution. While that might benefit some players, it might also discourage more casual players. At the end of the day, the industry depends on somebody losing money.
I wonder if any ADW or track is considering using DD will-pays to make projected odds for the public (e.g., an updated morning line). I seem to remember responding to a survey where I was asked whether I would find such a thing useful. In many cases, it would make late odds shifts less suspicious.