Hmm, I was referring to the fact that really small pools (ie. < $10K) are sometimes less efficient (meaning that they might not correlate well with the win pool odds), but yeah, I suppose it's possible that say, if the computer guys aren't able to bet into the NYRA Bets Pick 5, then the Pick 5 pool might not be as sharp a reflection of each horse's win probabilities as the win pool and could subsequently produce some more generous payoffs vis-à-vis the win parlays.

Case in point: Today's late Pick 5 paid $3,904, which was 3 times the win parlay of $1,282 vs. an expected payout of around twice the parlay, or $2,605 after adjusting for the takeout.

As I mentioned in another post, the "sharp" money (computer guys?) pounded Monomoy Girl down to 1/2 from just over even money in the last flash of the CCA Oaks today with $170K worth of win action, putting her right in line with her estimated "fair value" based on the Will Pays.

But say similar money wasn't bet in the Pick 5 and that MG was actually closer in the Pick 5 to the even money odds she was at when they loaded in the gate? That puts the parlay at around $1,795 and makes the $3,904 payout fall right in line with expectations at around twice the parlay.

Could be just a coincidence and maybe such a phenomenon isn't happening at all, but can't dismiss the possibility..