Re: Class of 2017 (948 Views)
Posted by:
Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: August 12, 2018 08:47PM
Richiebee, (sorry for the delayed response time)
You know I value and respect your well thought out opinions. I could write an enormous amount on this subject with theories and ideas I've created trying to explain much of the Baffert magic. I'll try to keep it focused to make my point. There is no better word to describe him than magician as Gary West artfully provided to bloodhorse in the interview I referenced. Sometimes magicians' tricks are unveiled or uncovered. I am not a vet, not a chemistry expert, and not in the know with any testing. I've never understood magic and I've never worked with a horse besides a retired lazy quarter horse my dad owned the first 25 years of my life as a pet. I'm just a dumb old handicapper with a bit of law background you referenced. It is my belief that Baffert is one of those guys that will follow the letter of the law but not necessarily the spirit of the law. I can't unveil or uncover his tricks but I sure can see patterns that indicate enough to imply certain issues with his trainees. One of my best angles I've shared with a close group of friends I'll share here for the purpose of making my point. And it is still useful through Labor Day likely.
At Del Mar in Graded Stakes since the start of the summer 2017 meet (Summer of '17, BC '17, Nov. '17, and Summer, '18 to date), BB has a record of: [b]1 for 32.[/b] The one win was in the Pacific Classic when Collected beat Arrogate in a field of 7 that included 4 tomato cans as this site has been known to call such horses and Accelerate who wasn't a star yet. I doubt anyone on here can even believe that stat is true. But it is. In the previous 50 starters at Del Mar prior to last summer in graded stakes, he had 13 winners for a cool 26 percent. (Did the competition get tougher in Del Mar graded stakes since the start of last summer's meet or did something else happen? I bet the magician and his assistant know but would never tell you!)
In other news, I saw that Baffert is shipping Marley's Freedom to Saratoga rather than running at Del Mar. She earned a 105 Beyer in May at Santa Anita. I guess Baffert isn't pointing for the Del Mar meet. Or maybe she just doesn't like the surface.
In NY, Baffert's record has been almost impeccable the last two years. Just ask any of the locals in your neighborhood about his work with Hoppertunity in NY, Drefong, Arrogate, West Coast among many others. I don't have the NY numbers handy but his graded stakes record there after shipping across the country back and forth is out of this world. If memory serves, in the last two Belmont Stakes Festivals, Baffert has won with West Coast, Abel Tasman, Hoppertunity, Justify, among others. On Travers Day the last two years, he has won with Arrogate, (2nd with American Freedom), West Coast, Drefong, and Abel Tasman in the CCA in '17 at Saratoga among others I believe. Yet just one graded stakes win at Del Mar. And the margins of those NY graded stakes victories weren't all by just a nose.
On another note, Baffert's record in MSW races at Del Mar is spectacular given how everyone points for that meet out there. In MSW races the past two years at Del Mar, he is 19 for 73, 26 percent (the same as his graded stakes record there until last summer's meet kicked in). Many include the same horses that don't run well in graded stakes out there after breaking their maiden or don't run in graded stakes there at all.
For me, I see patterns. The pattern I see is not congruent with the idea that he *only* works his horses with an advantage that allows him to race them faster than everyone else. Some have theorized that PED's explain his success. I don't know any of that whatsoever. But it is interesting that he has "come up with" three of the greatest horses of all time in the last 5 years. In Arrogate's old age of 4, he fell apart as we all know after his trip to Dubai. Must have been the Dubai bounce. It had nothing to do with jurisdiction, or rather, Venue Issues or the 6 month steroid withdrawal rule that applied for the 2018 BC (but not the 2017 BC when he didn't race him between the Travers and the BC).
I don't have the answers but my belief is the rules for different tracks, different states, different jurisdictions and venues varies widely and greatly with respect to testing and security in graded stakes events esp in the BC. And esp at Del Mar. And a magician knows where he can hide a card up his sleeve or misdirect the audience's attention and when and where he can't. I guess we call that the art of knowing "where" to spot his horses. Of course, no rule is hard and fast as there are always moving parts in this industry.
So Marley's Freedom heads to Saratoga. The Best Pal just happened and Baffert didn't run anyone. In last week's 2yo filly stakes, the Sorrento, he had no starters but has 3 future 2yo filly superstars in his barn in Chasing Yesterday, Mother Mother, and Der Lu. I guess he just doesn't point for the Del Mar Graded stakes schedule. Oh wait....was the Breeders Cup there last year??? I hope I've at least made a point as to why I personally see him as a magician like his owner Gary West does with some facts that back up my assertions.
There is much more I could say and write about but time is always of the essence. I have more examples and facts but I can't give away all the secrets here. I know I didn't address all of your issues, that this wasn't perfectly coherent but I wanted to get a few ideas out there so that you (and others obviously) understand where I'm coming from when I made my innuendos about the Magic Man!! Now you see me, now you don't!
On a completely unrelated note, did you see a vet making the point to the CHRB that having OOC testing would lead to a loss of integrity in horse racing? It is hard to believe this is a viable stance but I wonder who the vets are seeking to protect with a stance like that. The horses of course right?????? Sarcasm (for those that can't discern it in written text) was used in that last line.
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/228631/chrb-makes-progress-on-out-of-competition-testing?utm_source=BHTW&utm_mediumsocial=
As for the other two big name Magicians in the game, one is headed in a terrific direction sweeping graded stakes trifectas on turf all over the place while the other is floundering at Saratoga with his specialty, 2yo's at the Spa. Funny fact, I don't think either one has started a horse at Kentucky Downs the last few years even with their monster purses and I honestly can't figure out exactly why not.