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Re: Class of 2017 (948 Views)
Posted by: Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: August 12, 2018 08:47PM

Richiebee, (sorry for the delayed response time)

You know I value and respect your well thought out opinions. I could write an enormous amount on this subject with theories and ideas I've created trying to explain much of the Baffert magic. I'll try to keep it focused to make my point. There is no better word to describe him than magician as Gary West artfully provided to bloodhorse in the interview I referenced. Sometimes magicians' tricks are unveiled or uncovered. I am not a vet, not a chemistry expert, and not in the know with any testing. I've never understood magic and I've never worked with a horse besides a retired lazy quarter horse my dad owned the first 25 years of my life as a pet. I'm just a dumb old handicapper with a bit of law background you referenced. It is my belief that Baffert is one of those guys that will follow the letter of the law but not necessarily the spirit of the law. I can't unveil or uncover his tricks but I sure can see patterns that indicate enough to imply certain issues with his trainees. One of my best angles I've shared with a close group of friends I'll share here for the purpose of making my point. And it is still useful through Labor Day likely.

At Del Mar in Graded Stakes since the start of the summer 2017 meet (Summer of '17, BC '17, Nov. '17, and Summer, '18 to date), BB has a record of: [b]1 for 32.[/b] The one win was in the Pacific Classic when Collected beat Arrogate in a field of 7 that included 4 tomato cans as this site has been known to call such horses and Accelerate who wasn't a star yet. I doubt anyone on here can even believe that stat is true. But it is. In the previous 50 starters at Del Mar prior to last summer in graded stakes, he had 13 winners for a cool 26 percent. (Did the competition get tougher in Del Mar graded stakes since the start of last summer's meet or did something else happen? I bet the magician and his assistant know but would never tell you!)

In other news, I saw that Baffert is shipping Marley's Freedom to Saratoga rather than running at Del Mar. She earned a 105 Beyer in May at Santa Anita. I guess Baffert isn't pointing for the Del Mar meet. Or maybe she just doesn't like the surface.

In NY, Baffert's record has been almost impeccable the last two years. Just ask any of the locals in your neighborhood about his work with Hoppertunity in NY, Drefong, Arrogate, West Coast among many others. I don't have the NY numbers handy but his graded stakes record there after shipping across the country back and forth is out of this world. If memory serves, in the last two Belmont Stakes Festivals, Baffert has won with West Coast, Abel Tasman, Hoppertunity, Justify, among others. On Travers Day the last two years, he has won with Arrogate, (2nd with American Freedom), West Coast, Drefong, and Abel Tasman in the CCA in '17 at Saratoga among others I believe. Yet just one graded stakes win at Del Mar. And the margins of those NY graded stakes victories weren't all by just a nose.

On another note, Baffert's record in MSW races at Del Mar is spectacular given how everyone points for that meet out there. In MSW races the past two years at Del Mar, he is 19 for 73, 26 percent (the same as his graded stakes record there until last summer's meet kicked in). Many include the same horses that don't run well in graded stakes out there after breaking their maiden or don't run in graded stakes there at all.

For me, I see patterns. The pattern I see is not congruent with the idea that he *only* works his horses with an advantage that allows him to race them faster than everyone else. Some have theorized that PED's explain his success. I don't know any of that whatsoever. But it is interesting that he has "come up with" three of the greatest horses of all time in the last 5 years. In Arrogate's old age of 4, he fell apart as we all know after his trip to Dubai. Must have been the Dubai bounce. It had nothing to do with jurisdiction, or rather, Venue Issues or the 6 month steroid withdrawal rule that applied for the 2018 BC (but not the 2017 BC when he didn't race him between the Travers and the BC).

I don't have the answers but my belief is the rules for different tracks, different states, different jurisdictions and venues varies widely and greatly with respect to testing and security in graded stakes events esp in the BC. And esp at Del Mar. And a magician knows where he can hide a card up his sleeve or misdirect the audience's attention and when and where he can't. I guess we call that the art of knowing "where" to spot his horses. Of course, no rule is hard and fast as there are always moving parts in this industry.

So Marley's Freedom heads to Saratoga. The Best Pal just happened and Baffert didn't run anyone. In last week's 2yo filly stakes, the Sorrento, he had no starters but has 3 future 2yo filly superstars in his barn in Chasing Yesterday, Mother Mother, and Der Lu. I guess he just doesn't point for the Del Mar Graded stakes schedule. Oh wait....was the Breeders Cup there last year??? I hope I've at least made a point as to why I personally see him as a magician like his owner Gary West does with some facts that back up my assertions.

There is much more I could say and write about but time is always of the essence. I have more examples and facts but I can't give away all the secrets here. I know I didn't address all of your issues, that this wasn't perfectly coherent but I wanted to get a few ideas out there so that you (and others obviously) understand where I'm coming from when I made my innuendos about the Magic Man!! Now you see me, now you don't!

On a completely unrelated note, did you see a vet making the point to the CHRB that having OOC testing would lead to a loss of integrity in horse racing? It is hard to believe this is a viable stance but I wonder who the vets are seeking to protect with a stance like that. The horses of course right?????? Sarcasm (for those that can't discern it in written text) was used in that last line.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/228631/chrb-makes-progress-on-out-of-competition-testing?utm_source=BHTW&utm_mediumsocial=

As for the other two big name Magicians in the game, one is headed in a terrific direction sweeping graded stakes trifectas on turf all over the place while the other is floundering at Saratoga with his specialty, 2yo's at the Spa. Funny fact, I don't think either one has started a horse at Kentucky Downs the last few years even with their monster purses and I honestly can't figure out exactly why not.



Subject Written By Posted
Class of 2017 (2531 Views) Silver Charm 08/05/2018 08:37AM
Re: Class of 2017 (1032 Views) BitPlayer 08/05/2018 09:30AM
Re: Class of 2017 (1097 Views) Fairmount1 08/05/2018 11:27AM
Re: Class of 2017 (958 Views) phil23 08/05/2018 04:32PM
Re: Class of 2017 (901 Views) Tavasco 08/05/2018 09:18PM
Re: Class of 2017 (998 Views) richiebee 08/07/2018 05:40AM
Re: Class of 2017 (867 Views) richiebee 08/07/2018 06:22AM
Stephens Belmont's vs Baffert's BC (967 Views) skitimber 08/07/2018 09:57AM
Re: Stephens Belmont's vs Baffert's BC (932 Views) richiebee 08/07/2018 10:25AM
Re: Stephens Belmont's vs Baffert's BC (963 Views) belmont3 08/07/2018 03:54PM
Re: Stephens Belmont's vs Baffert's BC (982 Views) Socalman3 08/07/2018 11:04AM
Re: Class of 2017 (948 Views) Fairmount1 08/12/2018 08:47PM
Re: Class of 2017 (835 Views) Rich Curtis 08/13/2018 11:17AM
Re: Class of 2017 (810 Views) Silver Charm 08/13/2018 06:36PM
Re: Class of 2017 (901 Views) Fairmount1 08/13/2018 08:05PM
Re: Class of 2017 (808 Views) APny 08/13/2018 11:48PM
Re: Class of 2017 (762 Views) RICH 08/14/2018 04:48AM
Re: Class of 2017 (869 Views) richiebee 08/14/2018 06:49AM
Re: Class of 2017 (735 Views) Boscar Obarra 08/14/2018 02:13PM
Re: Class of 2017 (1056 Views) FrankD. 08/14/2018 04:07PM
Re: Class of 2017 (757 Views) Boscar Obarra 08/14/2018 04:58PM
Re: Class of 2017 (809 Views) Fairmount1 08/14/2018 05:36PM
Re: Class of 2017 (780 Views) Boscar Obarra 08/14/2018 06:58PM
Re: Class of 2017 (746 Views) Silver Charm 08/15/2018 07:40AM
Re: Forego and handicap races (923 Views) Mike C 08/15/2018 04:11PM
Re: Forego and handicap races (793 Views) philywheel 08/15/2018 08:24PM
Re: Forego and handicap races (748 Views) philywheel 08/15/2018 09:04PM
Re: Forego and handicap races (737 Views) Mike C 08/16/2018 03:45PM
Re: Forego and handicap races (750 Views) philywheel 08/16/2018 04:22PM
Re: Forego and handicap races (762 Views) gowand 08/16/2018 08:41AM
Re: Forego and handicap races (739 Views) philywheel 08/16/2018 10:03AM
Re: Forego and handicap races (747 Views) JR 08/18/2018 01:12AM
Re: Forego and handicap races (900 Views) FrankD. 08/18/2018 07:04AM
Re: Forego and handicap races (750 Views) richiebee 08/18/2018 08:12AM
Re: Forego and handicap races (696 Views) JR 08/18/2018 12:54PM
Re: Forego and handicap races (713 Views) JR 08/18/2018 12:45PM
Re: Dr. Fager (2766 Views) Mathcapper 08/17/2018 04:31AM
Re: Dr. Fager (752 Views) ajkreider 08/17/2018 11:17AM
Re: Dr. Fager (766 Views) Al Caught Up 08/17/2018 12:40PM
Re: Class of 2017 (791 Views) johnnym 08/16/2018 09:09AM
Re: Class of 2017 (728 Views) hellersorr 08/16/2018 12:38PM
Re: Class of 2017 (742 Views) belmont3 08/16/2018 02:13PM
Re: Class of 2017 (953 Views) johnnym 08/06/2018 10:40AM


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