Johnny,

I hear your frustration and this game has never been one for those that are seeking to regularly follow the stars. Breeding, injury, etc have always been potential pitfalls for creating lasting Big Names on the racetrack. But now add in the cat and mouse game that trainers play with either avoiding the Breeders Cup or training up to the BC big dance creates further consternation.

Personally, I believe Instagrand and Roadster are both avoiding the BC due to the unique BC withdrawal rules OR to properly "prepare" (if you will) for the spring prep season (Ie, racing in Mid-March off a long winter break to gear up for the first Saturday of May. You know after being "out of training" for a while so that all bets are off on the medication front). I have laid out this theory with BB before with his most successful TC horses. As for the Hollendorfer horse I don't have any research to prove this idea so it is more of a "guess" with him than BB.

I have no opinion on Good Magic's break but his Travers was not very good.

Justify was worth too much money to not retire and I trust Bill Mott when it comes to Elate.

I point this all out b/c you have to view these as individual cases from a handicapping perspective. As a fan, I do agree you can see broad sweeping trends as the years go by. Less foals, less starts, training up to the BC, avoiding the BC, etc. And as I have stated many times, uniform rules that MATCH whatever the BC is doing would have profound effects on the game to the benefit of horse players. And you would see the training percentages level out to a certain degree.

That still doesn't answer where all the breeders have gone though........19k foal crop this year is nowhere near the peak of 51k in 1986. More purse money and more tracks than ever to run at, high end sales are booming if you believe the headlines.....but the breeders are disappearing.....a gambling game (or a business? or hobby?) at all levels of breeding, owning, training, wagering that never ceases to fascinate.

The BC will still be a fantastic event esp at CD where the atmosphere is probably the most "festive" and enthusiastic about racing of all the venues it has been while able to comfortably accommodate a crowd of 60k+/-.