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 Race of the Week:  2023 Breeders' Cup Days Final Figures Santa Anita 3-4 November 2023 
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Re: Figure Making Final Exams (1123 Views)
Posted by: Furious Pete (IP Logged)
Date: November 09, 2018 08:04PM

Good job! The numbers seems solid enough IMO.

Okay, I'll make a list and will try to keep an open mind, just because I'm really interested in this. I fear it will be easy to turn those findings into a kind of straw man argument though, given the dead rails, many "off" races in general, and the fact that it's simply much harder to carry ones A-game to the other side of the world. There is of course also a risk for self-fulfilling prophecies implied in this methodology, when it comes down to these things (I know it's not an easy exercise at all to get those relationships right, and overall I'm quite impressed by TG's efforts).

Let's see how this looks (I'll just dig it out for now, as I'm not sure a purely quantitative approach would make one any smarter in this case - I'll leave that for others if they must):

Friday (2yo's):
- So Perfect - Lasix - Pairs up her previous best (a 9)
- Queen of Bermuda - No lasix - a slight new top (from 9.5 to 9)
- Soldiers Call - Lasix - Off race, dead rail notion(1w)
- Sergei Prokofiev - Lasix - Off race
- Pocket Dynamo - No lasix - A bit off his best, but decent (11 vs 8.5)
- Well Done Fox - No lasix - no factor

- East - Lasix - Pairs up (from 8.75 to 8.5) (no X but comment says rail 3/8)
- Just Wonderful - Lasix - Pairs up clear top from last time out(lto), a 10, but does it on a dead rail (1w1w)
- The Mackem Bullet - No lasix - slightly off top (10.75 vs 8.5 lto), but she did so going further than ever before, and on a dead rail (1w1w)
- La Pelosa - 2nd time lasix - 5 points off the figure earned at woodbine with 1st lasix lto (12.75 now, 8 then). 12 would be a pair of prev best.
- Lily's Candle - No lasix - no factor

- Line of Duty - Lasix - 2 pt new top (8 vs 10.25). Partly dead rail, but no notion (2w1w)
- Arthur Kitt - Lasix - Pair of top (10), dead rail (1w1w)
- The Black Album - No lasix - Pair of top (11 vs 10.75). Not the smoothest run
- Anthony Van Dyck - Lasix - Off race
- Marie's Diamond - No lasix - Off race

Saturday:
- Lost Treasure - Lasix - 2-3 points off race
- Havana Grey - Lasix - Off race

- Wild Illusion - No lasix - slight new top (from 3.5 to 3) - reluctant in gate and tight in traffic
- Magic Wand - Lasix - pairs up lto (4 then, 4.5 now)
- Athena - Lasix - slight new top (4.75, from 5.25)
- Eziyra - Lasix - pairs up - not the smoothest of runs
- Princess Yaiza - Lasix - off race - dead rail notion (2w1w)

- Expert Eye - Lasix - slight new top (from 3 to 2.25)
- One Master - No lasix - 3 points off clear new top from lto (5.75 now, 2.5 then), but pairs up prev top and did it while running 1w1w on a dead rail
- Clemmie - Lasix - Slight new top (from 5.5 to 4.75)
- Lightning Spear - Lasix - Ran good enough (better than lto, 2 points off top)
- Happily - Lasix - Off race on a dead rail (1w1w)
- Gustav Klimt - Lasix - A tad off (5.25 now, 2.5 as best), off slowly
- Mustashry - Lasix - A bit off (4.5 now, 2 lto), horrible trip (off slow, rushed hard, faltered)
- I can fly - Lasix - 3 points off top (5.75 vs 2.5 lto), broke slowly, couldn't fly

- Enable - Lasix - 3 point new top. Pretty accomplished runner.
- Magical - Lasix - 3 and a half point new top.
- Waldgeist - No lasix - A bit off (4 vs 1.25 lto), step slow in start
- Talismanic - No lasix - Off race on a dead rail (1w1w) (7.5 now, 4.75 lto, 2 is the top (from last BC w/o lasix))
- Hunting Horn - Lasix - No factor


So, what to make of it? For one thing I see a few more excuses for the "no lasix"-horses this year, which adds to my suspicion that these numbers should not be used in a purely quantitative context. It's just randomness.

About the Euro/US relationship it's inconclusive (once more). Was it a tight call to make the turf even faster? From a pure projection point of view I guess it's tight between how it was done, and making it a point faster. A really messy race to make figures for.. I see the trainer and those that really has been following Enable says she was even better last year, that is interesting.. I'm inclined to thinking that it's not as simple as a "euro's"-adjustment, it's more to it than that I think, and often I believe you get it quite right. But it's something about those top, top races and those that compete for the very first places I think, they seem to have a gear available that the figures don't pick up on (or the clock?). If they get to run their race, that is, the very best ones usually does. Uh-oh, the frowned upon class-word has arrived in my thoughts..

It's difficult. It really is. I doubt I will ever be sure about any of this.



Subject Written By Posted
Figure Making Final Exams (3199 Views) TGJB 11/09/2018 06:27PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (1123 Views) Furious Pete 11/09/2018 08:04PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (919 Views) bluechip21 11/09/2018 08:10PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (984 Views) Bet Twice 11/09/2018 09:15PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (1141 Views) Ace 11/09/2018 09:52PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (1129 Views) TGJB 11/09/2018 10:11PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (904 Views) Bet Twice 11/09/2018 10:43PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (992 Views) Edgorman 11/10/2018 09:24AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (915 Views) Tavasco 11/10/2018 09:27AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (865 Views) jbelfior 11/10/2018 01:14PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (849 Views) Frank 11/10/2018 05:20PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (945 Views) bobphilo 11/10/2018 09:43PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (915 Views) TGJB 11/10/2018 09:47PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (816 Views) bobphilo 11/10/2018 10:32PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (979 Views) TGJB 11/10/2018 10:38PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (902 Views) bobphilo 11/10/2018 11:03PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (984 Views) TGJB 11/10/2018 11:18PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (816 Views) Bet Twice 11/11/2018 12:12AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (801 Views) bobphilo 11/11/2018 10:55AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (745 Views) wrongly1 11/11/2018 11:00AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (789 Views) bobphilo 11/11/2018 11:07AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (765 Views) Fairmount1 11/11/2018 12:21PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (878 Views) bobphilo 11/11/2018 10:33PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (779 Views) TGJB 11/11/2018 10:38PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (765 Views) Furious Pete 11/11/2018 01:30PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (764 Views) Bet Twice 11/11/2018 01:47PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (688 Views) bobphilo 11/11/2018 10:44PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (741 Views) grinder 11/11/2018 06:26AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (749 Views) bobphilo 11/11/2018 09:45AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (780 Views) grinder 11/11/2018 10:23AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (703 Views) bobphilo 11/11/2018 10:51AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (794 Views) bobphilo 11/11/2018 10:01AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (890 Views) TGJB 11/11/2018 06:58PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (773 Views) Furious Pete 11/11/2018 07:30PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (729 Views) jbelfior 11/11/2018 08:27PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (740 Views) BB 11/11/2018 10:56PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (739 Views) P-Dub 11/12/2018 03:42PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (848 Views) bobphilo 11/11/2018 10:59PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (826 Views) Furious Pete 11/11/2018 11:16PM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (785 Views) Tavasco 11/12/2018 10:25AM
Re: Figure Making Final Exams (931 Views) TGJB 11/11/2018 11:16PM


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