Re: Odds on By My Standards (882 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: March 24, 2019 12:19PM
That's about why I had as well (actually 23-1 based on the top 3 choices from the prior race), so he went off right about where expected based on the Will Pays.
Having said that, because of the fact that War of Will was significantly lower on the tote than in the Will Pays (4/5 vs. 8.5/5), there were at least [i]seven[/i] other entries that were substantially higher than their Will Pay odds at 1MTP and figured to take big drops as well.
Below is the comparison of DD-Implied, 1MTP and Final Odds for each entry.
Interesting to note that other than a couple of minor moves down, By My Standards was the ONLY one that actually took big (really big) last minute action, so much so that he actually ended up going off at his DD-implied odds, which at the time I thought was virtually impossible for any of those entries b/c they were all SO much higher than their DD-implied odds, unless the "smart money" laid off the favorite completely in the last minute, which didn't happen (he stayed right at his 4/5 last-minute odds).
_______ [b]DD[/b]___ [b]1MTP[/b]____ [b]FL[/b]
1______ 17_____ [b]36[/b]_____ 32
2______ 29_____ [b]57[/b]_____ 65
3______ 12_____ [b]18[/b]_____ 15
4______ 5.2____ 6.4_____ 7.8
5______ [b]23[/b]_____ [b]40[/b]_____ [b]22.5[/b]
6______ 1.7____ 0.9_____ 0.8
7______ 35_____ [b]67[/b]_____ 50
8______ 5.4____ 5.4_____ 6.4
9______ 18_____ [b]27[/b]_____ 23
10_____ 4.1____ 3.8_____ 4.3
11_____ 21_____ [b]40[/b]_____ 33