After Always Dreaming busted my theory in 2017, I didn't update this last year, but overall I'm still a believer & this year the only horse who jumped up and "qualifies" is Omaha Beach with a 4.5 point jump up from his prior top. This analysis now covers the last 21 Derbies.

Overall there have been 36 horses that jumped up 4 pts or better in their final prep. 3 won, but one, Big Brown, jumped from a 1 to a -3.5, so he was fast before the jump. The other two were Always Dreaming in 2017 and Charismatic in 1999. As for the rest, Ice Box ran 2nd but regressed a point. None of the other 32 hit the board and only 2 other made it to 4th to be in the super. In 2016 year we did not have Lani's early races, so the data was incomplete as to whether he had a 4+ point jump up, but he's included in the study. Here are the results year by year, the 1st # is the horse's Derby finish, followed by the points he jumped up in his last prep, followed by the number of points he regressed in the Derby. Overall 32 of 36 regressed.

2018
9th, 4.50, 2.75
20th, 10.00, 33.00

2017
1st 5.5, improved 1.00
10th 4.00, 7.00
11th 4.00, 4.25
18th, 6.50, 16.25

2016
6th, 7.75, 2.75
9th, 4.5 (incomplete data), improved 2.25
16th 4.75, 9.00

2015
17th,5.25,16

2014
4th,7.75,2.5
6th,6,1.75
8th, 7,4.25

2013
9th, 4.5,4.0

(none the years 2011-2012)

2010
2nd,4.50,1.00
8th,4.75,3.25
10th,4.00,5.50
11th,5.00,8.00
18th,4.25,25.25

2009
4th,6.0,1.50
6th,7.50,1.75
14th,4.75,6.50

2008-Big Brown won
1st,4.50,improved 1.25
11th,4.00,7.50

2005
7th,4.75,9.25
11th,6.75,5.75
19th,7.0,21.00

2004
14th,4.75,7.25

2003
14th,6.00,9.75

2002
14th,4.00,7.00

2001
6th,5.00,4.50
11th,5.75,8.75

1999 Charismatic won
1st,4.50, paired
15th,5.00,6.00
16th,4.00,8.50

1998
11th,5.25,14.00