Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '19 (650 Views)
Posted by: Molesap
Date: April 16, 2019 09:55PM
Love this - excellent work as always. I have done as much research as you - not even close, but I get the idea that you have Roadster too high as I think he will be close to Game Winner, maybe even at lower offs. I also think Improbable will end up in single digits. I suspect that we will have six horses under 10/1 this year for what the 4th time since 2000. I do think you are spot on with the price on Omaha Beach, and he might gain momentum as we get closer to the day, but 7/2 seems about as low as he goes and having him on the cusp of 4/1 makes sense to me. I think people are going to like the Smith is on him and his tractable speed with quick acceleration when called upon is going to land a number of people in his corner. I think you have Game Winner too low and maybe Maximum Security a tad low, but conversely Roadster and Improbable a bit high. Maximum Security is a tough one with the connections. I agree that his double triple digit Beyers are going to help him attract some mutual pool attention. Plus, didn't he get a ton of late action in the Florida Derby? It will be interesting to see how they bet Baffert, but I suspect his lowest odds one will Roadster. Winning the SA Derby with that kind of move is going to impress a number of people and I think some will be put off by Game Winner losing the last two and not quite living up to his name. I think Improbable or Tacitus will be the highest of "the big six" but both still might not shade 10/1.
I have not thought much about some of the higher odds horses, so I have no comments there. As always interesting to think about and you have a fairly good historical record - thanks for sharing.
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