Re: UPDATE, Charles Town Rainbow (725 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: April 21, 2019 10:44AM
At Charles Town, the Pick 6 has only a 12% takeout and they apportion 30% of the pool towards the jackpot pool if there’s no lone winner. They offer a $.20 wager, but patrons must bet a minimum of 5 combinations, or $1.00, on their ticket.
By my math, unless the payout was a [i]really[/i] big underlay, it looks like that $9,631 payout is based on a $.20 ticket (a total of 128 winners), not a $1 ticket as stated in the charts. The $6K amount referenced in that errant video feed is closer to what would be expected for a $.20 ticket, but that was wrong as well because it assumed there was a carryover and thus took a big chunk out of the pool to put towards the jackpot.
The pool was $1,196,337, which along with the $179,963 carryover, produced a total pool of $1,376,300. There was 0.12*$1,196,337 = $143,560 subtracted from the pool in the form of the 12% takeout and $179,963 added to the pool by the carryover, for a net addition of $36,403, with no takeout for a jackpot pool and no takeout for consolation tickets, which meant that horseplayers were looking at a positive advantage of +$36,403/$1,196,337 = +3% on the bet.
The $.20 parlay was $2,810, in which there is an inherent -17.25% takeout in each leg (WPS takeout). But since you only get hit with the takeout once in the Pick 6, and because in this particular case the effective "takeout" was actually a positive 3%, the expected payout was 1.03/(1-.1725)^6 = 3.2 times the parlay, or $9,020, which is pretty close to the actual $9,631 payout.*
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*CORRECTION: $.20 parlay was actually $5,620 not $2,810 as noted above, so the expected payout was $18,040 not $9,020, which means that even based on a $.20 ticket the payout was light.