Re: Digging like an Archaeologist on the Beach (962 Views)
Posted by:
Mike C (IP Logged)
Date: April 26, 2019 08:16AM
I just looked at the archives for the last 5 years, could not find a derby horse that did not back up after a -2(neg#) or faster in a derby prep race, only a couple-justify and american pharoah both improved after -1(neg#) races to new tops to win the derby. Three horses in 2015 had -2(neg#) preps, all faster than American Pharoah's preps, and all three, Frosted, Materiality and Upstart all backed up.
So historically, there is a basis for looking past Omaha Beach in the derby despite him being the fastest going in.
Even if he backs up a little there are other fast horses in here, some of which may be ready to go forward to neg numbers
Young horses improve at different times, some are precocious very early, others a little later. Look at Gun Runner, was not fast as a young 3 year old, but kept improving as he got older, in 2015 Upstart ran 2 races faster than -2(neg#) pre derby, what did he do after that?
I guess this is a longwinded way of saying that I'm playing Omaha Beach to bounce on derby day.