I guess it’s not officially Derby Week until tomorrow but I wanted to get a jump on things before the real wack jobs surface......

There has been some great handicapping discussion, sheet theory and historical trends brought up here of late. Keep it going, a pleasant reminder of what this board used to be about.

The main debate is no doubt whether Omaha Beach will bounce or not? Normally a big jump like this in the final prep does not bode well.

I’ve been against OB since before the Rebel. IMHO stakes horses with very few exceptions don’t take 5 tries to break their maiden. Yeah I know it was on the grass, he is a War Front, they are faster green than brown. I thought he had a dream trip in the Rebel and Improbable was a bit short in the Arkansas Derby.

All that said OB has been nothing but ultra impressive in his last 3 and in the morning of late. Has he finally figured it out, is just a late bloomer, was his last too much too soon? One can certainly pay to find out @ 9/2 ish in a wide open Derby with a lot of early pace.

I don’t subscribe to him bouncing off the Ark Derby and wish I could take credit for a pretty obvious visual from that day. Before I saw his number and the contenders sheets a former, obnoxious poster pointed it out to me in an email.
It has been mentioned here by a few that the outside paths were no doubt the place to be that day in Hot Springs. The figure is ground loaded (Improbable’s as well) but with the ground loss not only being intentional but highly favorable that day can you really hold it against him? From a TG perspective that my friends is the million dollar question?

Another friend who makes his own Oaklawn figures and has followed that circuit closely for years emphatically states that ground loss doesn’t seem to matter at Oaklawn nearly as much as other tracks. I’m not well versed in Hot Springs 101 but It is noticeable that swooping the group is fairly common there on non-conveyer belt days. I’ve attributed a lot of it to non-competitive heats and a Cowboy 🤠 jock colony? All food for thought.

I’ll not be using OB in either of the top 2 spots, obviously he cannot be tossed out but I’ll play him defensively only in the 3rd and 4th spots. My triple and super play will be nominal, I’ll include some bombs that could possibly sneak into the bottom of ticket by running late.

My main focus and of course it’s draw and weather dependent will be in the exacta pool. Leaving out OB, including the 3 Baffert’s and Tacitus in a 4 horse exacta box. The absence of a solid favorite, the spread of 5,6/1 to 12/1 ish with these 4 make for a 2 zero number, possibly a bit shorter but not much. I’m not sure what to do with Roadster? Tacitus & the Wood non factor for a long time, plus a lot of development has me leaning more to the 2nd spot than top. If you ever have looked at a TG sheet you cannot not include Game Winner, it’s pretty and the horse seems to always show up. Improbable is the value for me. He is a length & neck from being undefeated and will be double digit odds, at 3X the price of the favorite and higher in the exacta pool, I’ll pay to find out.....
GW & Improbable will probably be keyed and a few others will be included in the 2nd spot.

It’s no doubt the best betting Derby in a few years. I don’t know about a life changing score but there are some shekels on the table for the taking 😎

Good luck and Happy Derby Week to all,

Frank D.