Re: Derby Week (1079 Views)
Posted by:
mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: April 28, 2019 12:21PM
Some good points here Frank.
Tough to say whether Omaha Beach bounces or not. He's not acting like it so far, but we will see how he comes out of his work. I think he's a deserving favorite, but it is tough to see him moving forward in this spot.
The horse I plan to play against is Maximum Security. I'm of the opinion that he's had 4 races and had it all his own way in every one of them. He's not going to get that here, and I hope he folds under pressure.
I'm also not as high on Tacitus as most others seem to be. To my eye he is more of a grinder, Belmont type of horse.
I don't like how Game Winner has been running on his wrong lead lately. He even broke on his wrong lead. He didn't do that at 2, so I see it as a negative and perhaps an indication that there is some type of physical issue brewing. He's certainly a trier and lays his body down every race. I like Improbable the best of the Bafferts. Lot of talk about him being by a City Zip, but Collected was a City Zip and got 10 panels. Lots of stamina influences on the Dam side of the pedigree too.
Curious to see what By My Standards and War of Will do in this race. I really like how By My Standards has been acting lately, and I think his LA Derby was a little better than it looks on TG. I also have his maiden faster. I also really like he wasn't afraid to shift inside, shoot through a gap and split horses. He's a neat colt, just not sure how much I like a Goldencents to get 10 panels so it's a little tough to see him winning. War of Will has every right to bounce back from his LA Derby Debacle, and he was pretty fast heading into that race.
Tax is an interesting gelding too. Nice claim by Gargan. He's had 3 stakes races at 1 1/8 and hit the board in every one of them. I don't see him as a strong win candidate but he could hit the board at decent odds.
A very, very good betting race IMO.
Give my regards to Jimbo.
Looking forward to the draw.