Re: Maximum Security work (838 Views)
Posted by:
Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: April 29, 2019 11:55PM
Agree to disagree on this one 'bee as it relates to the following statement:
[b][i]"because most of the money bet into the Derby
Pool will be bet by people who are not even aware that Trainer Servis had
horses entered on Friday or how they performed. Huge pools here, [size=medium]lots of
relatively uninformed bettors,[/size]"[/i][/b]
A lucky lot these uninformed bettors.
Betting Rank in Derby Win Pool of top 4 finishers
2013: 1-16-2-5 (3 horses under 10-1)
2014: 1-17-3-2 (3 horses under 10-1)
2015: 1-4-2-5 (3 horses under 10-1 and the 4th horse 10.30-1)
[color=#FF0000]2016: 1-2-3-4[/color]
2017: 1-13-15-3 (2 horses under 10-1)
2018: 1-6-4-20 (3 horses under 10-1)
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The longshots consisted of Dallas Stewart ('13, '14), Asmussen ('17), and Hollendorfer ('17, '18).
None of this will affect Max Security's odds on Saturday. But it isn't uninformed bettors that will make his price in my opinion. The crowd on this race has been really, really sharp in the Points Era not just in the first slot.