Baffert last year made Roadster his top 2019 Derby selection. Baffert wouldn't have put a plodder in that spot, and Roadster ain't bred to be a plodder. There's a brilliant mix of speed and stamina top & bottom. He's been running over very deep SA surfaces, not far behind very quick horses. Point is, from post 15, Roadster might wind up getting a pretty darn good 3w trip, without having to be used up early.

If the above is correct, the loss is Mike Smith is a positive, as the ride won't be that difficult, and the odds are 20% higher.

And it probably doesn't hurt that Roadster is as likely as any to run a new top here.