Re: Mike Lee Stakes @ Belmont (911 Views)
Posted by:
Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: May 27, 2019 05:31AM
Thanks to MstrLucky for taking the the time to analyze Labor Days Mike Lee Stakes and posting his opinion.
Since it is Memorial Day and I don't know who Mike Lee was I'd appreciate someone sharing his claim to fame.
What stands out to me is two of the favorites, maybe all three have legitimate early speed. Their race and advantage is to get in front save ground avoid trouble and win races.
[b]Blindwillie McTell[/b] from post position #6 appears to me to have a slight advantage both in quickness and starting position. The other quick horse imo, is [b]Stone Breaker[/b] out in post #10. This overachiever who started in a $30K MCL for NY statebreds has developed into a competent race horse. don't think he loses much ground. But could, if #3 [b]Le General[/b] is quicker than I make him. This colt is partially owned by our celebrity pal James Covello along with partner Kallenberg & others. Jim has been associated with quality runners and this could be another. Its just my analysis that he'll end up 3rd on the turn.
Pace analysis doctrine would lead us to expect one of the three competitors will survive the pace duel and hit the board. Alternatively @ today's 7F the the occasional meltdown is possible where all three speed balls run out of the money. I'll ass-u-me that jockey's can avoid such foolishness.
I agree with MstrLucky in that I want to find a price horse or two that could bump up the vertical payoff. I'll risk letting Bankit or Frosted Ice beating me. I'll also toss Funny Guy. By default, the two that I'll include in the exacta with the three aforementioned pace factors are Pletcher trainee [b]Just Right[/b] and Lucky Billy Mott's [b]Durkin's Call[/b] as most likely to run one of their good races.
What I'll contemplate until this afternoon and post time is whether to play a super perfecta with Red Zinger in 4th under the five contenders I've mentioned? The simple logic being at least one of the three pace horses won't be around at the finish and one of my two pressers won't run well for whatever reason. Tomato can [b]Red Zinger[/b] is consistent but slow he'll jump up, imo, before he bounces and he'll need to here to even get 4th.
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