Agree with your analysis of this race, if Desert Ride can somehow get a decent trip she could be really tough. I used to be more afraid of big new tops, but with improving 3 year olds I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt that she may love the synthetic surface, or is just maturing to a stronger faster horse right about now, and that new top is only temporary and she will get even better in the future. She has never gone backwards. That being said she still may have trouble getting a trip, while One Bad Boy should have an easy lead, and if there is water added to the surface, he could be tough to catch; he never raced this far, but his Dam was a distance lover. He would not need too much improvement if the other contenders lose ground on two turns; we have all recently seen examples of how the slower horses with the better trips win races over the faster wide trips. Nice race to bet.