Re: Belmont Derby - English Bee (421 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco
Date: July 06, 2019 08:18AM
Looks to me like an interesting race. I'm contemplating if there is a good play. Probably, but what?
Five entrants are dubious to me.That's dubious good not dubious slow. As good as TG #'s are I have to believe that getting a good # for a US runner is easier than doing the same for a Euro.
But for me its all about finding an overlay. So if English Bee stays anywhere near 30/1 he's on my $1 show bet action play. I'll add Master Jester to my dubious herd.
All three Euros have a blemish of sorts. I'll have to do some research but Cape Of Good hope went off @4/1 in a field of 13 in his last @ Ascot. I'm confident it wasn't the distance that gave him a problem. (not with Galileo on top) so I'll figure he had traffic problems. It will surprise me none of the three finish in the money.
Then there's Spinoff? His Ky Derby was poor, was he one of the severely bothered horses in KY? I like the dam's turf influence. His price will probably float up. Dirt to turf is an unappreciated change. The owner/breeders may have had the lawn in mind all along and because he was so precocious he ended up on the TC trail. I'll take a chance most wouldn't and put him on top.
Brown's bevy do not impress me here. They'll all be overbet anyway so I won't use any of them.
Who does that leave? TAP's Social Paranoia stretching to 1+1/4, forget about it! Henley's Joy. As much as I like the style of shirt I dislike this Mike Maker trainee. The other U.S. horses can't beat the Brownies I'll leave them out and even Casse's jump up candidate Moon Colony as much as I like him.
If I can get an exacta out of the dubious 5 I'll be....lucky, considering the numbers are all so close and a couple point move either way due to form or trip is reality. Here we are looking at a race which imo is gonna be close with a screaming finish.
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