Re: Belmont Derby - English Bee (864 Views)
Posted by:
Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: July 06, 2019 08:18AM
Looks to me like an interesting race. I'm contemplating if there is a good play. Probably, but what?
Five entrants are dubious to me.That's dubious good not dubious slow. As good as TG #'s are I have to believe that getting a good # for a US runner is easier than doing the same for a Euro.
But for me its all about finding an overlay. So if [b]English Bee[/b] stays anywhere near 30/1 he's on my $1 show bet action play. I'll add [b]Master Jester[/b] to my dubious herd.
All three Euros have a blemish of sorts. I'll have to do some research but [b]Cape Of Good hope[/b] went off @4/1 in a field of 13 in his last @ Ascot. I'm confident it wasn't the distance that gave him a problem. (not with Galileo on top) so I'll figure he had traffic problems. It will surprise me none of the three finish in the money.
Then there's [b]Spinoff[/b]? His Ky Derby was poor, was he one of the severely bothered horses in KY? I like the dam's turf influence. His price will probably float up. Dirt to turf is an unappreciated change. The owner/breeders may have had the lawn in mind all along and because he was so precocious he ended up on the TC trail. I'll take a chance most wouldn't and put him on top.
Brown's bevy do not impress me here. They'll all be overbet anyway so I won't use any of them.
Who does that leave? TAP's [b]Social Paranoia[/b] stretching to 1+1/4, forget about it! [b]Henley's Joy[/b]. As much as I like the style of shirt I dislike this Mike Maker trainee. The other U.S. horses can't beat the Brownies I'll leave them out and even Casse's jump up candidate [b]Moon Colony[/b] as much as I like him.
If I can get an exacta out of the dubious 5 I'll be....lucky, considering the numbers are all so close and a couple point move either way due to form or trip is reality. Here we are looking at a race which imo is gonna be close with a screaming finish.
7,9,10,11,14 ebx
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