Later today I will drive about 45 minutes down the highway to my home track in Fort Erie for the second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. Back in the day, the track was part of the Ontario Jockey Club circuit "A" meet and like Saratoga, the Hooray Henry set would congregate there every August for racing.

As the track is only a stone's throw from the Peace Bridge to Buffalo, the parking lot would always be full of cars with NY plates, and tellers would take more bets in Yankee dollars than Canuck bucks.

After 9/11, the Americans stopped coming and the track was sold a few times. The slots were also removed and the track appeared headed for certain closure in 2012. However, a separate funding agreement was worked out with the province, and the track is now home of the thoroughbred "B" meet. This consists of low-level claimers which only run twice a week for buttons.

That said, aside from Saratoga, there is no place I would rather be on a sunny afternoon than paddock-side at Fort Erie with a cold pint.

It will also seem rather odd indeed to see the likes of Castellano, Prat, and Santana get a leg-up in the paddock at a track where it is a big deal if a rider makes the trip down the highway from Woodbine for a mount.

As for the POW, it does not appear to be a great betting race but I have a few thoughts:

[u]One Bad Boy [/u]- He has a really nice-looking progressive TG line coming into this race and is a deserving favourite. The obvious wild card for the field is the surface switch to dirt. He had two races on the dirt at Santa Anita and seem to handle it fine. As he breaks from the one-hole, I don't see any other option for Prat other than the lead. However, he may get more early pace pressure than in the Queen's Plate.

[u]Avie's Flatter[/u] - In hindsight, maybe the trainer wishes she had given him one more start before the Plate. Castellano gave the horse a great ride from a wide post and he looked at the top of the stretch that he was going by the winner but was not good enough. There is absolutely no dirt pedigree to gauge on the dam side. While the sire stats for dirt are fine, I think that this horse was always meant for turf/synthetics. As he is the likely second choice - I'm against.

[u]Skywire[/u]- He was absolutely wiped-out at the start of the Plate - and was hard steadied again when making a bit of a move on the far-turn. However, I also wonder whether this horse will like the surface switch. He did win an off-the-turf race at GP in February, but that was on a sloppy-sealed track. Also, no dirt form to gauge on the dam side - I'm also against him.
[u]
Tone Broke[/u] - Has more dirt starts than all of his rivals combined - therefore his ability on the dirt has been established. I'm also not sure if he liked the Tapeta in the Plate and that effort may be better than it appears. He does appear a little slower on TG than these (compared to their synthetic races) but I think he could have a forward move in him yet. I also like that Asmussen has switched back to Santana for the race and as such, I would expect a more aggressive ride today. At 5-1 M/L he is my play.

Good Luck.