FG 12/26 Early P4 (516 Views)
Posted by: Molesap
Date: December 26, 2019 01:21AM
At the behest of some of the TG’ers, I looked at the FG card.
FG 1. 3/9-8/5. Sir Advent has been odds on his last five starts with a record of 5-1-2-1 overall – so it is hard to get too excited about a horse that has been beaten so many times at short prices. His last race came off a four month layoff and he could improve here with racing, but he is coming in off 19 days rest and that has not been good for him in the past. He may be the controlling speed and even if you go with his last race and he runs the same thing, it is still faster than everyone else – looks like a chalky start to the P4. I am not expecting the 5/2 morning line to hold up – thinking he will be closer to 7/5.
FG 2. 6-9-1/7-5. Tough race as seemingly half the field has a shot here, but that is what makes this sequence appealing – a chance for a bit of a price. Special Connection was wide in her debut dirt sprint after getting some action and going off as the 5/2 favorite. There are a couple of others that have better figures than she has coming into this race, but I expect significant improvement here. The horse is stretching out, gets on the turf and the trainer wins almost 1/3 of the time second outs. I think these will all be to her benefit. She is out of a Giant’s Causeway mare and that should help the distance and surface a bit. Two slow works since she ran. I think she is the most likely winner. Gifted Talent comes out of the same race where she ran even worse. She also got a bit play at 4/1 that day. She got bumped at the start and slowly fell back, but did not lose too much ground. Trainer has a very good dirt to turf record and sire is 14/61 first turf – that is very strong so far. Not really thrilled about the connections, but that should help the price a bit. Star Prado makes second start from the rail. She is also by Star Guitar with that gaudy debut turf record. She was essentially eased in debut after taking up, but at the time it did not look like she was going to do much anyways. Trainer usually does better work second time out and gets blinkers for this. Interesting longshot. Note on Jus Kim, who is the morning line favorite and debuter from the Asmussen barn. At FG since 2015, he is 6-0-0-0 with debuting turf routers – I am not using him.
FG 3. 3/7/6-2. Little Red Frog looks like the horse to beat here. This 2YO filly won debut, then was never a threat first time out against winners. She broke slow and was extremely wide next out and now drops a couple of levels for Kenneally. Like that’s he has been running at the major tracks on the circuit. Contrendress goes second off the claim for Asmussen. Usually he does very well with these types. She is drawn well on the outside and like that she has five weeks since her last race.
FG 4. 3-5-4. Indellibly goes for the potent Cox/Geroux team where she was dropped into a $15K MCL and run just OK. She has had two months between races and comes into this one sharper. Silver Platinum is debuter for Stall – that alone is significant as Stall is 66-20-16-7 with debuting dirt sprinters since 2015. Sire hits at an OK rate of 12% and the works are strong. Have to use this one as well, but may end up with a really short price. Gretchen has shown speed in routes in all three of her races this year – now she cuts back to 6f. She has the best figures in the race, but seems to be getting progressively worse numbers wise. If she can reverse that trend, she will be in the thick of things.
3/1-5-6-7-9/2-3-6-7/3-4-5 = $30
3/1-6-9/3-7/3-4-5 = $9
3-5-8-9/6/2-3-6-7/3-4-5 = $24
3/6/3-7/1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8 = $8
| FG 12/26 Early P4 (516 Views)
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