Re: Are projected odds catching on? (558 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: March 01, 2020 01:55AM
BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I have only analyzed the accuracy of the DD method
> seriously for NYRA. DRF is obviously casting a
> wider net, and I wonder if the method is less
> accurate for smaller tracks and if using the early
> win betting to refine the DD projections is more
> important there.
I've probably done at least 20K races myself over the years. Haven't noticed much of a difference in accuracy between bigger tracks vs. smaller tracks, or between bigger pool vs. smaller pools. The efficiency of the pools seems to hold up just about the same everywhere.
> An aside: I looked at the Stronach Five this week
> and the payoff seemed light (not substantially
> better than the parlay). Do I have that right
> and, if so, does that occur often on carryover
> days? Thanks.
The payoff did indeed come back light, not all that unusual except for the fact that it was a carryover day, which does make it less likely. In looking at the results, I see the 2,5,7 are all listed as winners of the fourth leg (3rd race at SA). Looks to me like there were two late scratches that got put on the winning favorite, which turned the Pk 5 into a semi defacto Pk 4, hence the lower payout.