Re: Significance of Ground Loss (765 Views)
Posted by:
BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: September 02, 2020 07:28PM
Just to clarify a couple of things:
2w and 3w on the first turn were better than 1w. 4w and out were not.
The traffic difference I found was only a point or less. Since being wider on the first turn usually leads to being wider on the second turn, there is still generally a benefit to being inside on the first turn (e.g., 3w3w vs 1w1w is 2 points of ground loss at 10 furlongs and more than offsets the 1 point benefit of less traffic).
Here's my data (please forgive data entry errors) for the points system years (2013-2019) in the format you use for your Derby studies.
Turn 1 path (number of horses)
% Top
% Pair
% Off
% X
1w (36)
8.3
22.2
27.8
41.7
2w (30)
23.3
23.3
20.0
33.3
3w (35)
11.4
28.6
22.9
37.1
4w (21)
9.5
14.3
14.3
61.9
5w (10)
10.0
10.0
40.0
40.0