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 Race of the Week:  Kentucky Oaks and Derby Cards - Final Figures Churchill Downs, 4-5 September 2020 
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Re: Will pays totally wrong (262 Views)
Posted by: BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: September 13, 2020 12:25PM

Full disclosure: I don't play pick-5's. They are beyond my ability and bankroll.

My guess, however, is that they don't know who the post-time favorite will be when they post the will-pays, so they don't count tickets with scratched horses (11/14/15/16) as winners. Under my theory, you would have gotten the full $1,120.80 (for $1) if the someone other than the 9 (maybe the 4) had been the post-time favorite. Since the 9 was the post-time favorite, the will-pays on the other horses should have been accurate.

My theory would also explain why the pick-4 will-pays were inaccurate, but is blown out of the water if the pick-3 will-pays were wrong. According to the chart, the pick-3 paid off only to the 9, not to the scratched horses.

Edit: I now see there was a consolation payoff to the pick-3 due to a late scratch in the middle leg. I don't know how that figures into the will-pays.



Subject Written By Posted
Will pays totally worng (449 Views) wrongly1 09/12/2020 08:26PM
Re: Will pays totally worng (394 Views) rezlegal 09/12/2020 09:08PM
Re: Will pays totally worng (330 Views) Fairmount1 09/13/2020 07:58AM
Re: Will pays totally worng (303 Views) rezlegal 09/13/2020 12:48PM
Re: Will pays totally worng (307 Views) BitPlayer 09/12/2020 11:27PM
Re: Will pays totally worng (290 Views) wrongly1 09/13/2020 09:16AM
Re: Will pays totally wrong (248 Views) BitPlayer 09/13/2020 09:45AM
Re: Will pays totally wrong (261 Views) wrongly1 09/13/2020 10:18AM
Re: Will pays totally wrong (262 Views) BitPlayer 09/13/2020 12:25PM
Re: Will pays totally wrong (274 Views) wrongly1 09/14/2020 12:18AM
Re: Will pays totally wrong (294 Views) P-Dub 09/15/2020 01:25AM


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