Jeff Ruby Steaks Day (478 Views)
Posted by: toppled
Date: March 26, 2021 06:33PM
I wait all year for this day, one of my all time favorite race cards each year.
1st-Pass, but I'll use two 30/1 ML shots in an action DD #6 Buckets of Rain & #7 Seventy Eight.
2nd: #2 Fuchsia ran fast enough on turf to win this & is by horrible turf sire Flintshire whose progeny are 2/73 on turf but a healthy 3/13 on synthetic. Half to turf & synthetic stakes winner Stephanie's Kitten should break her maiden in here. To complete the exacta I'm looking at 2 fillies who have run decent back #s at TP, #6 Nurturing & #8 Polka Polenta. Pretty chalky, but you take what they give you.
3rd: I'm taking a shot that #6 Native Lion found new life on this surface after running a competitive figure winning for $18k in her 26th start but 1st on Tapeta. Handles the rise in class. #8 Straitouttapopcorn won on Ruby Steaks day here last year, loves this track and is on a 2 race wining streak. I'll be boxing her with my choice in the exacta.
4th: #10 3/5 ML Beau Luminare looks like a free square in exotics. He's been running fast on dirt & turf and the breeding should move him even higher on synthetics. Sire's TGI is 2 points better on synth than dirt or turf and her siblings are a solid 10/28 on synth. Only drawback is his full sister was only 1/8 on synthetics.
5th: This is a 6f MSW with a lot of FTS and only 4 horses with starts. So, toss the sheets into the wind and do some old fashioned non sheet handicapping. As it turns out, this race has my best bet of the day. I believe the experienced horses have the edge vs the FTS in this race.
#7 Supremacy didn't run as fast on a sloppy track as Asmussen's #12 Jerry's Secret did on the Turfway surface, but even though he finished 5th the race was stacked. He finished ahead of LA Derby show horse OBesos & Sam Davis winner Candy Man Rocket. Should improve for Cox/Geroux in his 2nd start.
#12 Jerry's Secret has run the fastest of the 4 horses who have started. Must use in exotics.
#2 Mischievous Rogue ran second on Tapeta at Presque Isle last October and has been working well over the surface.
7th:#12 Queen Medb was last seen winning a minor stake at Presque Isle getting a number that fits with these. She's been working well on turf in Florida for her return. Only concern is the poor post that has produced only 1 route winner in 31 races as of a couple of days ago.
#7 Evil Lynn makes her synthetic debut off a bunch of turf races.
#8 Kyance won here 2 starts back, may outrun odds.
9th: Last year my best bet when I handicapped the card was Finnick the Fierce in the Jeff Ruby Steak Stakes. He scratched. Well, he finally ran on synthetics here earlier this month & won a NW3. Now he moves up in class, but I think he, #6, can get the job done here. No other picks here.
11th: I can't go by the ML favorite, #7 Tarantino. His dirt #s destroy this field and his sire's best win % is on synthetic and his lone sibling to race on synthetics was 2/3 on the surface. Have to take the short price & hope to use correctly in exotics.
#2 Hush of a Storm won the Battaglia, this race's prep race, main danger.
#9 Hard Rye Guy had a nightmare trip in the Battaglia & should run 2nd or 3rd behind #7.
12th: This is another wide open maiden race.
#6 Natalie's Charm is a 1st time starter who has been working on synthetics at Skylight training center in Louisville but came here on March 6th for a 114.60 BG workout to get familiar with this track. Angle play.
Lots of other contenders 5,7,11,& 12.
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