Re: Caddo River ~ CURRENT DERBY FIELD (4/25-11:25a) (882 Views)
Posted by:
richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2021 08:15PM
Clean and up to date, only lacking a set of projected odds from the board's
Jesuit-trained oddsmaker.
I've dabbled in NONSCIENCE, now I will explore HISTORY (for purposes of both,
Maximum Security was 2019 Derby winner). Since 2013 (current point system), the
Derby winner was in the Top 5 point leaders five of seven years. Both Always
Dreaming and Maximum Security were seventh on points list.
In the last seven years, the Kentucky Derby was won by Florida Derby
[i]winner[/i] four times, Santa Anita Derby [i]winner[/i] twice and the
Arkansas Derby [i]winner[/i] once.
Given recent HISTORY, consider the following questions: (1) Is picking Derby
WINNER really that much of a puzzle? (2) Will there ever be a Giacomo/Mine That
Bird type Derby upset under the current points system? (3) How screwed am I
(based off above) in that I think Known Agenda bounces right out of the
trifecta?
[Maybe the points system could be tweaked so that winners of non pointed races
could be preferred over horses who have not won as a 3YO? Hypothetical: A Cal
bred or NY bred 3YO gets on a roll, winning a couple of state bred stakes
in nice fashion....would rather see a horse like this have an opportunity to go
to Derby than a horse who accumulated prep points but has not won as a 3YO.
Hypothetical also works subbing "filly" for "state bred".]