I agree that the Race Shapes are a good tool, but think the Derby (this Derby perhaps especially) is a bad example.

Consider that Medina Spirit in his last race (SA Derby) did not make the lead, and that the horse that outsprinted him for the lead in the SA Derby was in this race.

The Race Shape takes into account that Rock Your World ran two turf races before the SA Derby, each with 24 1/5 first quarters, and therefore projects Medina Spirit to be 3-4 lengths faster to the first call than Rock Your World, when we know that isn't true - or at least, it wasn't true the only time they've run a comparable race.